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Ukrainian grain market 06.02.2019

Last week domestic grain prices in Ukraine fell slightly, but mainly in ports. Decrease in prices in the ports occurred amid of national currency strengthening and weakening of the export corn market.
On linear elevators, prices have practically not changed. Supply of wheat increased slightly, but traders still have difficulties in forming ship lots. Along with the restriction of wheat exports provided for in the Memorandum between Exporters and the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, this maintains a high price level in Ukraine.
Processors have increased slightly purchase prices for food wheat, aligning them with the prices of exporters.
Global wheat market last reporting week was in a mixed trend. Wheat prices in Chicago rose slightly. The growth occurred against the backdrop of severe frosts in the Midwest USA and on expectations of improving export demand due to the drop in supply from Russia. In addition, the growth of quotations was supported by the strengthening of the markets for soybeans and crude oil.
At the same time, growth was limited by the strengthening of the US dollar and the decrease in corn quotations.
Western European wheat quotes in Paris declined amid EURO strengthening, weak pace of current exports and higher estimates of wheat production in Russia in 2019. At the same time, the fall was limited by the results of the last Egyptian tender and hopes for improvement in export demand.
In the Black Sea region, wheat prices (12.5%) either rose slightly during the week or remained within the previously formed ranges. In the Novorossiysk port of Russia, according to several analytical companies, prices were in the range of USD245–250/t, FOB. Prices increased by USD1–2/t. Growth of export prices slowed down against the background of the loss of Russian wheat at the last tender in Egypt, where Romanian and French wheat was purchased. At the same time, producers are still not in a hurry to sell grain in the hope of higher prices and a stronger ruble.
In Ukraine, export prices for wheat of 12.5% have not changed and by end of reporting period were in range of USD245–250/t, FOB, Black sea port, Feb/Mar shipments. Prices for wheat (11.5%) have retained within USD237–242/t, FOB. Feed wheat prices have dropped by USD5/) to USD228–232/t, FOB. Feed wheat is getting cheaper due to a weaker corn and barley market.
Export prices for corn for the week have declined by USD3/t to USD178–182/t, FOB for deliveries in Feb/Mar. Prices declined against the backdrop of Chicago, increased supply from agricultural holdings and weakening in activity of importers during the New Year holidays in Southeast Asia. For near shipments the market suffers from a lack of support factors. For further months, prices are slightly higher. Some traders continue to buy corn in the hope of selling with delivery in April/May.
This week, export prices for feed barley have not changedand by the end of the reporting period were in the range of USD230–235/t, FOB, Black Sea ports for deliveries in Feb/Mar.
Last week, prices for yellow peas have not changed. On EXW terms, yellow peas were offered at UAH 6300–7000/t, depending on the lot size, terms of payment and the region. The level of purchase prices for CPT port is UAH7000–7300/t (inc. VAT) depending on the port. Export prices — USD210–225/t, CPT port, Black Sea (-USD3/t). In Russia, export prices for yellow peas are fixed at USD240/t, FOB, for shipments of 3 thousand tons.
Barley trade is virtually non-existent, prices are nominal, traders have announced prices for the grain of the 2019 harvest (see below).

As of this week, traders have set their grains’ export forward prices:
 — 12.5% wheat — USD245–250/t, FOB, Feb/Mar shipments;
 — 11.5% wheat — USD237–243/t, FOB, Feb/Mar shipments;
 — 11.5% wheat — USD200–205/t, FOB, Jul/Aug shipments;
 — feed wheat — USD228–232/t, FOB, Feb/Mar shipments;
 — feed wheat — USD190–195/t, FOB, Jul/Aug shipments;
 — feed barley — USD230–235/t, FOB, Feb/Mar shipments;
 — feed barley — USD188–193/t, FOB, Jul/Aug shipments;
 — corn — USD178–182/t, FOB, Feb/Mar shipments;
 — corn — USD182–184/t, FOB, Apr shipments;
 — corn — USD173–177/t, FOB, Oct/Nov shipments/


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