Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   

Photoblog

 


Home > News

Global cereal production heading for a record high in 2019

09.12.2019 18:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) FAOs latest forecast for 2019 world cereal production is pegged at an all-time high of 2 714 million tonnes, up some 0.4 percent from the November figure and now almost 57 million tonnes (2.1 percent) above the reduced outturn in 2018. The month-on-month increase primarily reflects an upward revision to world coarse grains production, associated with higher-than-previously predicted yields in China, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. At the current level, the forecast for world production of coarse grains stands at nearly 1 433 million tonnes, 1.7 percent (24.5 million tonnes) higher year-on-year and marginally short of the record high level registered in 2017.

Global wheat production forecast for 2019 has also been raised slightly since the previous month, to 766.4 million tonnes, 4.8 percent (34.8 million tonnes) above the previous years outturn. The bulk of the monthly revision resulted from upward adjustments to the production estimates in the European Union (EU), which more than offset a trimming of the output estimate in the United States.

Planting of the 2020 wheat crops, for harvest next year, is well underway in Northern Hemisphere countries. In the United States, winter wheat sowings were almost complete at the end of November, a faster pace than the previous year but in line with the average timing. Early indications suggest that the area sown may contract on lower price prospects compared to last year, while crop conditions were reported to be slightly inferior to normal levels. In the EU, following early-seasonal rainfall deficits, improved precipitation in November helped to recuperate soil moisture levels, benefiting winter crop establishment. In far eastern and western parts of the EU, however, dry weather persisted, resulting in suboptimal planting conditions that may impede early crop development. Conditions of the winter wheat crop were favourable in the Russian Federation, which, coupled with continued government support aiming to stimulate export growth, could boost the area sown. By contrast, in Ukraine, limited rains and warmer-than-average temperatures hampered planting of the winter wheat crop in key producing areas.

In the Southern Hemisphere, coarse grain crops are being currently sown while wheat crops will be planted later in the year. In South America, elevated grain prices, underpinned by robust export demand, are expected to sustain high levels of maize plantings in Argentina, despite unfavourable rainfall that hindered sowing operations, and in Brazil. Similarly, in South Africa, the largest maize producer on the Africa continent, remunerative grain prices are foreseen to spur an increase in maize sowings, with preliminary indications pointing to an area that would surpass the five-year average. However, the short-term weather forecast indicates likely reduced rains, a factor that may represent a downside risk to the production outlook in 2020. FAOs forecast of world rice production in 2019 has been increased from November by 1.6 million tonnes to 515 million tonnes, implying a mere 0.5 percent output decline from the 2018 all-time high. Adverse weather and tight water supplies for irrigation dampened the outlook for off-season crops in Thailand and Viet Nam this month. However, these adjustments were outweighed by area-based output upward revisions for Pakistan and various African countries, namely Egypt and Nigeria, which together with Madagascar are now set to spearhead a rebound in African rice production this season.

World cereal utilization in 2019/20 is forecast at 2 709 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the previous month; still a record of around 21 million tonnes higher than in 2018/19. At 758 million tonnes, the forecast for global wheat utilization in 2019/20 has been slightly lowered since last month, but still a record exceeding the 2018/19 estimated level by 1.4 percent. The forecast for total utilization of coarse grains in 2019/20 is pegged at 1 434 million tonnes, up only marginally from the previous season with an expected decline in feed use of maize more than outweighed by a foreseen rise in feed use of other coarse grains, barley in particular. Higher than previously predicted food intake is behind an almost 1 million tonne increase in FAOs latest forecast of global rice utilization in 2019/20, which now stands at a record 517 million tonnes.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2020 has been raised by almost 14 million tonnes (1.6 percent) since the previous month to 863 million tonnes; marginally down from the previous season and the third highest on record. At this level, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio would also approach a relatively high level of 31 percent, underscoring a comfortable supply situation. The forecast for world wheat inventories has been scaled up by 3 million tonnes since the previous month to close to 278 million tonnes, mainly on expectations of larger stock build-ups in several major exporting countries. At just over 403 million tonnes, total coarse grain inventories are also seen higher than earlier anticipated by almost 10 million tonnes, reflecting upward revisions to maize inventories especially in China and, to a lesser extent, in the United States. Despite another small upward revision, world rice stocks at the close of 2019/20 could still fall by 0.8 percent from their record opening levels to 182 million tonnes; on expected stock reductions in rice importing countries, in particular China and Indonesia.

World trade in cereals in 2019/20 is forecast at 416 million tonnes, up slightly from last month and now 1.1 percent (4.5 million tonnes) higher than the 2018/19 level. At 172 million tonnes, world wheat trade in 2019/20 (July/June) would be up 2.3 percent from the sharply reduced volume registered in the previous season. While the latest global forecast is close to last months, revisions were made to some individual countries. Imports by Algeria were trimmed by almost 1 million tonnes to reflect the recent government decision to restrict soft wheat purchases from world markets to 4 million tonnes, down from over 6 million tonnes. On the other hand, Kazakhstan, a major wheat exporting country, is seen to import at least 1.4 million tonnes of wheat because of a reduced domestic production. At 197.5 million tonnes, the forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2019/20 (July/June) is up 2 million tonnes from the previous month and now close to the 2018/19 record level. This months upward revision primarily stems from a stronger pace in exports from Brazil and Ukraine, more than offsetting a slowdown in sales by the United States. By contrast, the forecast of world rice trade in 2020 (January-December) has been lowered by 1.0 million tonnes to 47 million tonnes, reflecting improved prospects for domestic supplies in several countries in Africa, but also efforts to curb unofficial inflows, namely by Nigeria. The revised forecast suggests that world rice trade in 2020 would likely recover only partially (by around 2.5 percent) from the 2019 reduced level.

Agro Perspectiva

< World production of fresh apples for 2019/20 is forecast up nearly 5.0 million tons to 75.7 million tons All news for
09.12.2019
Inflation in Ukraine down to 0.1% in Nov, to 5.1% in annual terms statistics >

23.01.2020  
16:25 MHP EU certified poultry production facilities have ceased exports to the EU countries
15:57 Over 11 percent of agricultural farmland in Denmark is used for organic production
22.01.2020  
12:20 Groundbreaking ceremony marks start of a new BASF production hub for crop protection in Singapore
11:25 Tetra Pak launches first virtual marketplace for food and beverage manufacturers
16.01.2020  
17:35 Worlds first registration for BASF insecticide Broflanilide in Australia
11:25 China Lowers Applied MFN Tariff Rates on Selected Agricultural Products
14.01.2020  
13:20 Ukrzaliznytsia pays around $24 mln on eurobonds
13.01.2020  
12:55 Chicken Meat production in China is estimated at 14,8 MMT in 2020 - report of the USDA
11.01.2020  
16:10 Pork production in China is estimated at 36 MMT in 2020 - report of the USDA
12:35 Thailand Rice Exports Plunge Amid Production Declines, Global Competition
10.01.2020  
11:15 World food prices continue rising in December
09.01.2020  
14:25 MY 2018/19 corn production in Brazil is estimated at a record 101 MMT
08.01.2020  
16:15 ChemChina and Sinochem announced that they are consolidating their agricultural assets into a new holding company Syngenta Group
13:10 Japan Prepares to Allow Preventative ASF Culls in Case of Outbreak
11:35 Cargill reports fiscal 2020 second-quarter results
03.01.2020  
11:45 Summer drought in the EU caused poor pasture conditions and led to forage shortages
26.12.2019  
11:25 The 2019 milk output forecast for Australia is revised down by 2 percent to 8.8 million tons
24.12.2019  
18:55 Rice export prices increased around 1 percent due to the strengthening of the Thai baht
11:40 Prospects for U.S. dairy exporters have improved markedly
21.12.2019  
10:30 In 2019/20, China wheat imports are forecast at 3.2 million tons
20.12.2019  
16:35 Prospects for U.S. dairy exporters have improved markedly as 2020
14:08 EBRD and EU boost export opportunities in Eastern Partnership countries
10:05 Global production of wood products posts highest growth in 70 years
09:55 Ukraine's Statistics Service revises GDP growth forecast in Q3 downwards: to 4.1% from 4.2%
09:30 World coffee production for 2019/20 is forecast 5.3 million bags
18.12.2019  
17:55 European Union provides 82 million for an FAO-led initiative targeting rural communities in Papua New Guinea
17:08 Ukrainian pet food producer Kormotech expands to Lithuania
10:05 FAO and the Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences strengthen efforts to build sustainability in fisheries and aquaculture
09:00 Global 2019/20 oilseed production is forecast at 574.6 million tons
14.12.2019  
21:30 Germany launches 20 million programme with FAO and UNDP to boost the agriculture sectors role in addressing climate change
13.12.2019  
17:00 Greater innovation needed to fight climate change, poverty and hunger
16:45 Govt approves memo with tobacco business on transparent, predictable regulation for development of tobacco sector MP
16:30 Consumers believe technology in ag is how well feed the world more sustainablybut that doesnt mean they want it, according to new survey
11.12.2019  
14:15 In 2019/20, China wheat imports are forecast at 3.2 million tons
11:00 Brazil Sees Record Soybean Exports In October November 2019
10:21 Corn: A Banner Year for Brazil
10.12.2019  
13:00 Kazakhstans Wheat Exports Projected at Lowest Level in More Than a Decade
12:47 Inflation in Ukraine down to 0.1% in Nov, to 5.1% in annual terms statistics
09.12.2019  
18:15 Global cereal production heading for a record high in 2019
18:15 World production of fresh apples for 2019/20 is forecast up nearly 5.0 million tons to 75.7 million tons
15:00 Ukraine, IMF agree on new cooperation program for around $5.5 bln
05.12.2019  
21:00 Record cereal production expected for 2019
20:15 FAO scales up fight against Fall Armyworm
19:00 Kernel plans to buy oil complex in Kropyvnytsky
18:35 EIB launches project on lending to Ukrainian farms for EUR 400 mln
18:30 World food prices jump in November
18:15 FAO offers novel assessment of trees and forests in the worlds drylands
04.12.2019  
09:07 FAO Director-General introduces innovation agenda to Council
29.11.2019  
23:38 Harvesting campaign 2019: agrarians got 14.6 million tons sunseeds
20:24 Ukrainian Jan-Oct margarine output up to 113,580 tons

Also available: 

Agrarian Week in digital



READ ON-LINE




NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
.      1991 . .      1991 .
2002 -2020 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +38 (044) 486-9171, 486-8119
fax: +38 (044) 486-8830, 494-4889
e-mail: info@agroperspectiva.com