Argentina ramps up soybean imports from Paraguay and Brazil
11.06.2023 15:55 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Due to the severe drought in Argentina, soybean production is down an addition 2.0 million tons this month to 25.0 million, the lowest level in over 2 decades. While production is forecast down 43 percent from 2021/22, crush is only projected to be down 23 percent, mainly due to strong demand from Argentine crushers. Monthly crush has been slower than past years, but crushers have been able to procure soybeans due to «soy dollar» exchange rate policies that incentivized farmer selling earlier in the year and strong imports of soybeans over the past few months. Through the first 4 months of 2023, Argentina has imported 3.0 million tons from neighboring countries, predominantly Paraguay and Brazil, elevating forecast October-September imports to a record 8.7 million. Fortunately for Argentine crushers, there are ample exportable supplies in neighboring countries. Typically, Paraguay is the largest supplier of soybeans to Argentina and has already shipped a record 2.6 million tons between January-April 2023. Paraguay exportable supplies are up this year due to a more than doubled crop from last year’s drought, reduced exports to Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine, and reduced import demand from Brazil. Likewise, calendar year exports from Brazil through May are at an all-time high due to record production. In addition to Paraguay and Brazil, Argentina is also importing soybeans at a record pace from Bolivia, who has not traditionally been a significant exporter of soybeans. Growing production and Argentine demand have boosted 2023 exports through April 2023 above 130,000 tons. Uruguay is traditionally a minor soybean supplier to Argentine crushers but will have limited exportable supplies this year as production has also been decimated by drought. While it is highly atypical, the United States shipped 2.0 million tons to Argentina in 2018/19 during a previous drought, however, record supplies in Brazil reduce the likelihood that Argentina will need to source soybeans outside of South America to satisfy crush demand. AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin. Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).
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