Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News

Global cereal production 2024 forecast scaled up and now set to exceed the 2023 level

06.07.2024 10:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — FAO’s latest forecast for global cereal production in 2024 has been raised by 7.9 million tonnes (0.3 percent) in July and is now pegged at 2 854 million tonnes, up fractionally from 2023 and marking a new all-time high. The monthly increase reflects improved prospects for coarse grains, with the world production forecast lifted by 0.4 percent to 1 530 million tonnes, and for wheat, with expected production up 0.3 percent to 789 million tonnes compared to the June outlook. The bolstered outlook for coarse grains largely rests on better production expectations for maize harvests in Argentina and Brazil. Yield forecasts in the two countries are lifted moderately this month, reflecting more conducive weather after variable conditions in the preceding months. Nevertheless, Brazil’s output is still anticipated to fall well short of the record of 2023. Forecasts for maize production are also raised for Türkiye and Ukraine. These upward revisions more than outweigh downgrades to maize production forecasts for Indonesia and several Southern African countries, where dryness curbed yields, and for Pakistan, due to lower prices and reduced feed demand from the livestock sector that are expected to lead to a cutback in plantings. World wheat production has also been revised upward, mainly based on better prospects in Asia, notably Pakistan, where a record wheat output is likely. Inclement weather in key wheat producing areas in the Russian Federation led to a sizeable cut to the production forecast, tempering the upturn in global prospects this month. FAO’s forecast for global rice production in 2024/25 season has undergone only minor adjustments since June. It continues to point to world rice output possibly expanding by a further 0.9 percent in the new season to reach a fresh peak of 535.1 million tonnes (milled basis).

AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + “Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market” weekly analytical bulletin.

Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2024/25 stands at 2 856 million tonnes, up marginally (by 5.4 million tonnes or 0.2 percent) since June and 13.6 million tonnes or 0.5 percent higher than in 2023/24. Global coarse grain utilization in 2024/25 has been lifted by 3.7 million tonnes, boosted by higher foreseen feed and other uses of maize and barley, as well as higher food consumption of sorghum. This upward revision now pushes up the global coarse grain utilization forecast to 1 529 million tonnes, up 0.8 percent from the 2023/24 level. World wheat utilization in 2024/25 has also been revised upwards this month, by 1.5 million tonnes, led by increased utilization in Pakistan supported by a larger anticipated domestic production. Notwithstanding the increase, global wheat utilization is still seen falling in 2024/25 by 0.7 percent from its 2023/24 level. World rice utilization in 2024/25 is still forecast to expand by 1.2 percent year-on-year to reach an all-time high of 531.5 million tonnes. The food use component is anticipated to drive this growth, which could result in a 0.5 percent annual expansion in global rice per capita food intake to around 53 kilos.

At 894 million tonnes, FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2025 has been reduced by 2.9 million tonnes since the previous month, but expectations still point to a 1.3 percent rise in stocks above the opening levels. With the new forecasts, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio in 2024/25 would remain nearly unchanged from last season at 30.8 percent, continuing to indicate adequate supply prospects in the new season. This month’s downward revision largely reflects a 4.3 million tonne cut in the global coarse grain stocks forecast, attributed mostly to lower maize stock estimates for Brazil and Ukraine. Despite the downward revision, global coarse grain stocks are still set to increase in 2024/25, reaching 381 million tonnes, up 2.8 percent above their opening levels. By contrast, the forecast for global wheat stocks was raised this month by 1.6 million tonnes to 308 million tonnes, but still pointing to a decline of 1.4 percent below the opening levels. A downgrade in the Russian Federation’s wheat stocks forecast, on account of a smaller anticipated harvest, accounts for the bulk of this month’s downward revision of global wheat stocks. World rice stocks at the close of 2024/25 marketing years are forecast at 204.9 million tonnes, little changed from June’s expectations and 2.7 percent above their record opening levels, largely owing to expected accumulations in China (mainland) and India, and to a lesser extent in Brazil and Thailand.

FAO’s forecast for international trade in total cereals in 2024/25 remains unchanged from June at 481 million tonnes, representing a 3.0 percent decline from the 2023/24 level. Pegged at 231 million tonnes, the forecast for global trade in coarse grains in 2024/25 (July/June) has been lifted marginally (by 0.9 million tonnes) since last month, but still points to a decline of 3.9 percent from the previous season’s level. Although slightly better maize export prospects for Ukraine and higher maize imports by China lifted the global forecast by 1.0 million tonnes, world maize trade is still set to fall by 4.4 percent from the 2023/24 level. The forecasts for world trade in barley and in sorghum in 2024/25 (July/June) are both unchanged from June, with barley trade still seen heading for a decline of 3.9 percent, while global sorghum trade is still forecast to rise by 6.4 percent. The forecast for global wheat trade in 2024/25 (July/June) has been lowered marginally (by 0.9 million tonnes) since the previous forecast, further deepening the expected contraction from last season to 3.7 percent. This month’s downward revision reflects a cut in the export forecast for the Russian Federation, in line with the downgrade in its production forecast. Slightly higher sales foreseen for some other major wheat exporters, including Kazakhstan and Ukraine, offset the cut on the export side. On the import side, purchases have been reduced for Türkiye, following the temporary suspension of wheat imports from 21 June until 15 October, as well as for India, based on the recent government announcement that the import duty would remain in place with the country’s stock levels assessed as adequate. However, those downgrades are partially offset by stronger wheat imports foreseen for China and the European Union. International trade in rice in 2024 (January-December) is pegged at 51.1 million tonnes, down slightly from June’s forecast, largely owing to more passive import expectations for China (mainland), where rice purchases are now seen at thirteen-year lows. At the revised forecast level, global rice flows would stand at 3.4 percent below the already reduced 2023 level and at a four-year low.

Agro Perspectiva

< FAO Food Price Index stable in June All news for
06.07.2024
Climate risks projected to affect fish biomass around the world's ocean, FAO report says >

01.11.2024  
20:31 Ukraine has officially joined the International Fund for Agricultural Development
20:29 Ukrainian farmers harvested 63.7 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds
25.10.2024  
22:50 Agriculture hit hard: October port strikes rack up 30-40 million dollars in losses
21:04 Ministry of Agrarian Policy expects exports to rise in dollar terms
10:57 Ukrainian corn seed flows to Europe in further farm trade shift
24.10.2024  
23:02 Tree Nut Import Markets Highly Concentrated
23.10.2024  
11:18 Prime Minister UK warns Russian threat to global stability is accelerating as Putin ramps up attacks on Black Sea
15.10.2024  
09:35 Brazil Continues to Dominate Growth in Global Chicken Meat Exports in 2025
11.10.2024  
23:33 China Cottonseed Imports Show Strong Demand in Recent Years
20:30 India Removes Rice Export Ban, Spurring Additional Trade
30.09.2024  
17:27 List of agricultural machinery with cost compensation expanded to 11,300 items
29.09.2024  
20:21 1 in 11 people worldwide faced hunger in 2023, 1 in 5 in Africa If current trends continue, about 582 million people will be chronically undernourished in 2030, half of them in Africa
17:13 EU agri-food surplus increased in the first half of 2024
27.09.2024  
09:02 BASF presents new corporate strategy: BASF is setting a new direction for portfolio steering, capital allocation and performance culture
26.09.2024  
10:25 BASF sets new direction with corporate strategy and maintains high level of shareholder distributions
21.09.2024  
18:30 Three new sites recognized as Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems (GIAHS)
17.09.2024  
09:52 Cargill and Ducks Unlimited Working Together to Restore Watersheds Across North America
08:44 FAO calls for G20 cooperation as hunger targets continue to elude
06:40 FAO sees open trade as a cornerstone of global food security
13.09.2024  
07:08 U.S. Soybean Meal Hits 10‐Year High for Export Sales
12.09.2024  
21:26 U.S. Corn Exports Buoyed by Large Supplies
11.09.2024  
04:30 Global cereal production 2024 forecast on par with 2023 output, cereal trade likely to contract
06.09.2024  
11:35 FAO Food Price Index down marginally in August: lower sugar, meat and cereal quotations offset higher dairy and vegetable oil prices
10:34 Cargill acquires two US feed mills, strengthens production and distribution capabilities to grow with customers
05.09.2024  
09:23 PM: Plan to develop small generation facilities to reduce vulnerability to terrorism
30.08.2024  
05:03 Taras Vysotskyi discusses agricultural cooperation with Hungarian counterpart István Nagy
19.08.2024  
12:00 OTP BANK RECEIVED A $2.76 MILLION GRANT FROM USAID INVESTMENT FOR BUSINESS RESILIENCE ACTIVITY FOR CONCESSIONAL LENDING TO MICRO, SMALL, AND MEDIUM-SIZED ENTERPRISES
16.08.2024  
17:10 Cargill and Goanna Ag Pilot Irrigation Efficiency Technology on Mississippi Delta Cotton Fields
12.08.2024  
20:04 Ukraine Soybean Exports Forecast at Record in 2024/25
19:48 Domestic Demand and Trade Restrictions Reduce India Grain Exports
11.08.2024  
09:15 USAID Announces $3.9 billion in Direct Budget Support to the Government of Ukraine
09.08.2024  
17:41 USAID Announces $3.9 billion in Direct Budget Support to the Government of Ukraine
07.08.2024  
08:19 Turkey’s Mandarin Production and Exports to Rebound
26.07.2024  
09:28 Ongoing Economic Crisis in Argentina Impacts Dairy
15.07.2024  
10:28 Decline of China Pork Imports Continues in 2024
08:20 Lower Prices Propel Mexico 2023/24 Soybean Meal Imports
13.07.2024  
10:15 China Imports of Major Feed Grains at Record for Oct-May period
12.07.2024  
01:08 Climate risks projected to affect fish biomass around the world's ocean, FAO report says
06.07.2024  
10:15 Global cereal production 2024 forecast scaled up and now set to exceed the 2023 level
10:01 FAO Food Price Index stable in June
03.07.2024  
12:31 World pear production for MY 2023/24 is projected up more than 275,000 tons to 25.2 million
12:23 U.S. wheat exports are forecast to rebound by more than a million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year
01.07.2024  
08:58 World apple production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to rise more than 700,000 tons to 83.7 million
08:39 World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast to rebound 7.1 million bags
25.06.2024  
17:57 Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European banks report strengthening loan demand and improving profitability
17:05 Global Environment Facility approves $70 million to support FAO projects in 28 countries
24.06.2024  
04:15 Emergency brake triggered for oat imports from Ukraine
23.06.2024  
09:00 Colombia Production: Two Periods of Sharp Decline
19.06.2024  
15:35 World pear production for MY 2023/24 is projected up more than 275,000 tons to 25.2 million
10:35 India Apple Imports Forecast at a Record High

Also available: 


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2024 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 67 4473802; +380 67 5964652
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com