Record South American Soybean Supplies Forecast Despite Falling Argentina Crop

15.01.2023 08:03 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — This month, 2022/23 Argentina soybean production is lowered 4.0 million tons to 45.5 million on drought conditions straining yields. Smaller supplies put downward pressure on crush and exports, both lowered this month. Argentina exports and crush have been lethargic this year as farmers were reluctant to sell soybeans to hedge against high inflation. However, a more- favorable ‘soy dollar’ exchange rate enacted in September temporarily boosted sales and exports for a couple months. This trend is likely to continue with the new crop as supplies are forecast to tighten, further incentivizing farmers to hold onto stocks to maximize soybean sales revenue.

Despite a shrinking crop in Argentina, South American supplies in 2022/23 are still forecast at a record predominantly due to record Brazil production. Unlike Argentina, Brazil soybean production is up 1.0 million tons this month to 153.0 million. Additionally, soybean carryin is raised 3.0 million tons due to an upward revision to the 2021/22 crop and a lower crush estimate. As a result, both Brazil crush and soybean exports are up this month. This increase mostly offsets Argentina reductions this month.

The record South American crop will have major implications on U.S. soybean trade, which is nearing the final weeks of the usual peak-selling window before the start of the South American harvest. For one, this will put downward pressure on U.S. exports as buyers are more likely to source beans from abundant Brazil new-crop supplies. Coupled with the smaller U.S. crop and strong competition from Brazil through the end of 2022, U.S. soybean exports are lowered 1.5 million tons this month. The harvest of the South American crop will likely have a dampening effect on high global soybean prices unless dry weather further hampers Argentina production.

However, U.S. crush remains elevated on strong crush margins boosted by high product prices.

18.09.2023
	13:55	Ukraine will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over agricultural bans
15.09.2023
	21:02	Following the expiry of the restrictive measures on Ukrainian exports of grain and other foodstuff to the EU, Ukraine agrees to introduce measures to avoid a renewed surge in EU imports
13.09.2023
	17:54	Biodel AG Secures Series A Investment from Pangaea Ventures to Advance Novel Regenerative Agriculture Technologies
	07:25	Rice Export Prices Highest in 15 Years as India Restricts Trade
11.09.2023
	17:54	Export Bans, Black Sea Tensions, Affecting Food Markets - WTO Agriculture and Commodities Division
09.09.2023
	18:36	Global cereal production forecast to match past record - FAO
14.08.2023
	13:22	EBRD provides EUR60 million guarantee to support lending by Ukraine’s PrivatBank
	13:18	Supporting small business in the west of Ukraine via Bank Lviv
12.08.2023
	18:35	Russia Withdraws from Black Sea Grain Initiative
04.08.2023
	19:32	Falling international maize and sugar prices partly offset notable jumps in wheat and vegetable oil quotations
28.07.2023
	19:25	Cargill and partners announce first Gold Standard-approved methane emissions reduction methodology for beef producers
	19:21	FAO welcomes European Union contribution of ˆ25 million to advance wildlife conservation and food security
	18:55	BASF’s earnings in tough market environment significantly below strong prior-year quarter
24.07.2023
	00:45	Brazil continues to make export gains and set new records for beef, pork, and chicken meat
23.07.2023
	22:25	122 million more people pushed into hunger since 2019 due to multiple crises, reveals UN report
22.07.2023
	08:17	U.S. dairy exports to Southeast Asia have been weak to start 2023
13.07.2023
	07:00	Russia Exports Record Wheat Volumes; Ukraine Exports Plummet
08.07.2023
	09:00	FAO Food Price Index continued declining in June
06.07.2023
	20:10	Global agricultural and food production are projected to continue to increase over the next ten years
04.07.2023
	19:54	EBRD supports Ukrainian city of Dnipro with EUR25 million loan
	09:03	Nibulon invests EUR 27 mln in construction of granary, flour mill in Izmail
23.06.2023
	08:57	World coffee production for 2023/24 is forecast 4.3 million bags higher than the previous year to 174.3 million
	08:55	Mexico’s Production Recovering from Coffee Leaf Rust
22.06.2023
	04:05	EBRD and Ukraine government to mobilise ˆ600 million for Ukraine energy security
21.06.2023
	20:26	EBRD and Ukraine government to mobilise EUR600 million for Ukraine energy security
11.06.2023
	15:55	Argentina ramps up soybean imports from Paraguay and Brazil
10.06.2023
	04:35	World Oceans Day must be Humans Day: FAO Fisheries chief
09.06.2023
	11:24	EU extends trade benefits for Ukraine
05.06.2023
	11:25	2023/24 Grain Production Exceeds Consumption
02.06.2023
	11:45	Rebound seen for global cereal output, with worldwide stocks set to hit record levels
	11:35	Significant drops in international quotations for wheat, maize, vegetable oils and cheese, while prices of rice, sugar and meat rise
01.06.2023
	11:56	Conflict Drives Acute Hunger in the Democratic Republic of Congo - UN agencies warn
31.05.2023
	12:29	Three New Foods and Their Applicable Food Safety Standards
30.05.2023
	11:55	Haiti: Nearly half of the population is facing acute hunger
	11:34	Increasing risk of hunger set to spread in hotspot areas as the Sudan crisis spills over into subregion and el Niño looms - warns new UN report
28.05.2023
	12:51	Black Sea Grain Initiative not fully resumed – UN
25.05.2023
	15:52	Ukrainian FM urges African Union to demand that Russia stop obstructing work of grain corridor
20.05.2023
	11:49	Grain initiative talks continue considering proposal of UN Secretary General – Dpty Minister of Restoration
05.05.2023
	14:45	The FAO Food Price Index rebounded slightly in April
28.04.2023
	09:15	Yara . 1Q results impacted by falling prices, but tighter nitrogen market into 2Q
21.04.2023
	22:10	Ukraine sees no reason to ban Ukrainian grain imports by EU countries - Solsky
18.04.2023
	21:45	$5 million from FAO-China South-South Cooperation Programme will assist in building more resilient agrifood systems
	21:05	China Becomes World’s Largest Wheat Importer in 2022/23
14.04.2023
	09:52	EBRD and Spain join forces to support Ukraine’s food security and municipal sector
05.04.2023
	13:10	Astarta starts 2023 planting season
31.03.2023
	00:27	War in Ukraine continues to impact EU farmers
28.03.2023
	22:17	Ukraine sends 150,000 tonnes of wheat to Asia
	12:00	Global onion prices are at record-high levels due to a global shortage of onions
12.03.2023
	06:17	It will enrich Egypt if a kilo of onions costs HUF 1,000
10.03.2023
	11:03	Plummeting Argentina Soybean Production Impacts Global Soybean and Products Trade