Strong Farmer Selling Sparks Argentina Exports

12.10.2022 21:03 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (October 2022), driven by a large discrepancy in the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate and exacerbated by high inflation, farmers sold 2021/22 soybeans at the slowest pace in over a decade through the end of August. In an attempt to induce farmer selling, boost exports, and replenish central bank reserves, the Government of Argentina offered a more-favorable exchange rate during September of 200 pesos per U.S. dollar, up from the previous official exchange rate of 139 pesos per U.S. dollar.

As a result, Argentine farmer soybean sales exploded in September. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, farmers sold over 16 million tons of soybeans in September, or 37 percent of the total estimated 2021/22 Argentine soybean crop. Some portion of this tonnage will cannibalize sales that would have occurred between October and January, as farmers who intended to sell later in the year took advantage of the favorable exchange rate.

2022/23 (Oct-Sep) Argentina exports are raised 2.3 million tons this month to 7.0 million. If realized, Argentina will be the world’s third-largest soybean exporter again after falling behind Canada, Uruguay, and Paraguay in recent years. Strong soybean exports are expected to dampen available supplies for crush and product exports in the Oct-Sep outyear. However, despite the downward revisions this month, crush is still forecast to grow with the larger 2022/23 crop. Argentina soybean crush is likely to remain slow until harvesting the 2022/23 crop due to tight supplies and weaker crush margins as plummeting palm oil prices have dragged global vegetable oil prices down. Since peaking in late April, South American soybean oil export prices have dropped by more than one third. However, crush should recover with supplies and crush margins later into the marketing year and more than compensate for a slow start.

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