Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News

EBRD expects Ukraines economy to contract by nearly a third in 2022

28.09.2022 08:47 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Bank revises 2023GDP rebound forecast down to 8per cent

. EBRD continues to expect Ukraines economy to shrink by 30per cent in 2022

Bank lowers 2023GDP growth forecast from 25per cent to 8per cent

EBRD Regional Economic Prospects (REP) report highlights war-induced uncertainty

Russias war on Ukraine will cause the latters economy to shrink by nearly a third in 2022, according to the latest forecast by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

The Banks forecast that Ukraines gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 30per cent this year, issued today in the EBRDs Regional Economic Prospects report, is unchanged from its previous forecast in May.

For 2023, the EBRD has lowered its forecast of an economic rebound to eight per cent from the more robust 25per cent foreseen in May, when the expectation was that substantial recovery work would already be underway.

The reduced forecast is a sign of how heavily uncertainty over the shape of the future is weighing on Ukraines economic prospects.

Ukraines economy, which had grown by 3.4per cent in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021, has been functioning under war conditions since the Russian invasion on 24February 2022.

Though combat operations in more recent months have become more concentrated, covering territory that generates only around 20per cent of GDP, the devastation of human capital, infrastructure and production capacity has been enormous.

Approximately 15per cent of the pre-war population had left the country as of mid-August, while a further 15per cent had been displaced internally.

Economic activity has been severely disrupted, even in regions without combat activity, due to supply bottlenecks, logistical challenges, financial difficulties and a lack of adequate labour.

Russias blockade of ports, hampering agricultural exports, and the devastation of many steel-producing facilities in the east of the country have decimated the countrys two main exports, which generated almost half of all pre-war export revenues.

GDP plunged by 15.1per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2022and by 37.2per cent in the second quarter, when the most severe and widespread fighting took place.

Inflation picked up to 23.8per cent in August 2022due to supply disruptions and a soaring fiscal deficit.

The countrys initial high reliance on monetary financing of the fiscal deficit amid a significant external financing gap had depleted foreign reserves by 20per cent as of July 2022, despite capital controls being in place.

That prompted the central bank to increase the policy rate from 10per cent to 25per cent in June and to undertake a one-off 20per cent devaluation of the currency in July.

The situation has since started to improve, in part because of higher inflows of external financing in August and September. As a result, foreign reserves had recouped half of their losses by the end of August.

The recent resumption of grain exports from some ports and the expectation of sufficient external financing could be positive factors for economic activity over the rest of 2022.

However, the risks to forecasts are exceptionally high, depending on the duration and intensity of the war.

Agro Perspectiva

< Farmers sowed 961,000 hectares of winter rapeseed All news for
28.09.2022
Tackling food loss and waste: A triple win opportunity >

23.02.2024  
10:21 BASFs financial strength supports proposed stable dividend of 3.40 per share for the 2023 business year
10:17 The Council has chosen to ignore farmers' concerns regarding Ukraine ATMs; it is now imperative for the European Parliament to take action
20.02.2024  
20:27 South Asia is anticipated to import nearly 14 million tons wheat in 2023/24
19.02.2024  
13:00 Cargill and ENOUGH expand partnership to provide consumers with innovative, sustainable protein options
17.02.2024  
17:47 Global Environment Facility approves new FAO-led projects and programs benefiting 46 countries
16.02.2024  
09:10 The EU is at a crossroads with the Ukrainian agricultural issue - COPA-COGECA, AVES, CEFS, CEPM, CIBE, EUWEP
13.02.2024  
17:31 European farmers exempted from rules on land lying fallow
12.02.2024  
16:45 India Wheat Stocks Plummet to Lowest in 15 Years
03.02.2024  
17:35 Mandarins. Global production for 2023/24 is forecast to rise to 38.0 million tons
09:59 Record cereal output in 2023
07:15 FAO Food Price Index down again in January led by lower wheat and maize prices
29.01.2024  
10:32 President von der Leyen launches Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture
26.01.2024  
11:31 Record Exports Forecast for Egypt Oranges
23.01.2024  
17:55 With the Federal Chancellor in the show bakery
19.01.2024  
11:45 Organic production in Ukraine
16.01.2024  
23:25 Domestic consumption of dairy products may double in 2024 analysts
12.01.2024  
23:53 Competition Tightens for Leading Pork Exporter
22:55 Peru Fish Meal Exports at Lowest Level Since 2015/16 El Niño
22:43 Grains Trade Disrupted by Challenges in Key Shipping Routes
10.01.2024  
15:38 In China, the largest import market for dairy products, surplus raw milk production led to government subsidies to stabilize the domestic processing sector
09.01.2024  
11:55 The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 134.6 points in December, down 26.8 points from November
06.01.2024  
12:43 Polish fish and seafood imports continued to grow in 2022 and reached over $3 billion, with a $129 million (4 percent market share) originating from the USA
05.01.2024  
17:21 EU imports are dominated by unroasted green coffee beans, which accounts for about 90 percent of trade
17:00 FAO Food Price Index declines in December. Benchmark measure of world food commodity prices ends 2023 about 10 percent below its year-earlier level
29.12.2023  
09:53 Global and Bank of Georgia sign EUR50 million loan agreement to support small businesses
28.12.2023  
16:47 EIB delivers EUR3 million for energy-efficient upgrades in three Ukrainian cities
27.12.2023  
23:11 EU agri-food trade surplus increases in September 2023
26.12.2023  
15:05 FAO and EU launch a second grant call to bolster the recovery of Ukrainian farmers
18.12.2023  
09:00 EIB Global offers support to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia on the next step of their EU accession paths
11.12.2023  
13:21 FAO Food Price Index holds steady in November
09.12.2023  
22:15 Donau Soja: Republic of Moldova increases soya harvest in 2023 and boosts market opportunities in the EU
24.11.2023  
12:25 SUGAR MARKET BY SESVANDERHAVE
09:32 BASF signs CNY 40 billion syndicated bank term loan facility with maturity of 15 years for its Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China
21.11.2023  
23:35 2023/24 European Union sugar production estimated up despite lower area in France
13:07 Inflation forecast to drop further and EU economy to show modest upturn
20.11.2023  
14:10 BASF, The Estée Lauder Companies, RSPO and Solidaridad support Enhanced Sustainable Palm Oil Production in Lampung, Indonesia
11:27 Preserving antimicrobials for the well-being of humans, animals, plants and ecosystems
11:18 Dobrodiya Foods started the production of glute-free oat flakes under the WOWOATS brand
09.11.2023  
20:43 Ukraine Grain Exports to Slide in 2023/24 Despite Recent Improvements
07.11.2023  
18:55 Hidden costs of global agrifood systems worth at least $10 trillion
03.11.2023  
20:13 As winter weather closes in on the Northern Hemisphere, the demand for limes changes accordingly
02.11.2023  
11:21 Wärtsilä supports Denmarks green energy future with opening of new biogas liquefaction plant
13.10.2023  
21:35 Shmyhal speaks about progress in issue of confiscation of Russian assets abroad
21:27 Immediate action is needed to get Africa on track with global goals
06.10.2023  
12:55 Global cereal production set to reach a record high in 2023, while trade could contract in 2023/24
18.09.2023  
13:55 Ukraine will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over agricultural bans
15.09.2023  
21:02 Following the expiry of the restrictive measures on Ukrainian exports of grain and other foodstuff to the EU, Ukraine agrees to introduce measures to avoid a renewed surge in EU imports
13.09.2023  
17:54 Biodel AG Secures Series A Investment from Pangaea Ventures to Advance Novel Regenerative Agriculture Technologies
07:25 Rice Export Prices Highest in 15 Years as India Restricts Trade
11.09.2023  
17:54 Export Bans, Black Sea Tensions, Affecting Food Markets - WTO Agriculture and Commodities Division

Also available: 


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2024 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 67 4473802; +380 67 5964652
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com