China Meat Consumption Expected to Rebound in 2021
13.01.2021 16:30 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade (January 2021), driven by higher estimates for pork, the China total meat import forecasts for both 2020 and 2021 are revised 4 and 1 percent higher, respectively. While pork import growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2020, it nevertheless exceeded expectations and results in a more bullish outlook for 2021. The impact of African swine fever (ASF) is expected to have reached its zenith in 2020, pressuring consumption and increasing the country’s reliance on meat imports. Despite the elevated pace of trade, China meat consumption in 2020 fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. In 2021, higher estimates for both China pork production and imports lead total meat consumption up 2 percent from the prior forecast. However, total meat consumption is still expected to be below pre-ASF levels.
• Global beef production for 2021 is fractionaly lower at 61.2 million tons primarily due to declines in China and the United States. China is revised down 3 percent to 6.7 million tons on lower than expected production in the past year.
• Global beef exports for 2021 are unchanged at 10.8 million tons. Asia demand remains robust and the supply forecast for most major exporters is unchanged.
• Global pork production for 2021 is revised up nearly 2 percent to 103.8 million tons due to the Chinese hog sector’s ongoing recovery from ASF. Elevated prices continue to incentivize producers to expand their herds, resulting in the production forecast for China being revised 5 percent higher. However, despite upward revisions, China production is still expected to remain below preASF levels as rising costs and animal management challenges generate headwinds. Higher China
production more than offsets sharply lower Philippines production, where ASF continues to spread in key regions.
• Global pork exports for 2021 are revised up nearly 3 percent to 11.1 million tons on China import demand that, while lower year-over-year, is expected to remain elevated by historical standards. Abundant exportable supplies around the world are expected to find a home in China as consumption in this key market continues to be well below pre-ASF levels. Meanwhile, a weak peso and sluggish domestic economy lead to lower import expectations for Mexico.
• Global chicken meat production for 2021 is revised 1 percent lower to 101.8 million tons driven by sharp declines in the EU and China. The EU is battling widespread Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks across several Member States, weaker domestic demand, and higher grain prices. China chicken meat demand continues to grow but at a slower rate as the swine herd recovers and pork production rebounds.
• Global chicken meat exports for 2021 are down nearly 1 percent to 12.1 million tons as lower EU, Thailand, and Brazil exports are offset by gains in the United States. The outlook for China imports remains unchanged.