Plummeting Argentina Soybean Production Impacts Global Soybean and Products Trade

10.03.2023 11:03 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (March 2023), For the third straight month, 2022/23 Argentina soybean production is lowered as hot and dry weather continues to strain the crop in key growing regions. This month, production is down 8.0 million tons to a 14-year low of 33.0 million. Likewise, crush is forecast at the lowest level in over a decade. Plummeting Argentina supplies and crush will have implications on global trade of soybeans, protein meal, and

vegetable oils over the coming months.

To help offset tight domestic soybean supplies, Argentina imports (Oct-Sep) are forecast to be a record at 7.3 million tons. Argentina importers are expected to capitalize on a record Brazilian crop and recovery in Paraguay production to supplement the weak domestic crop. As a result, Argentina is expected to have the second-largest spike in soybean import growth in 2022/23, behind China.

For soybean products, overall trade is forecast down this month. Global soybean meal trade is down more than 1.0 million tons from last month as tight Argentina supplies support already high prices and shift some demand into other protein meals. Likewise, global soybean oil trade is down more than 2 percent this month as high Argentine and U.S. prices shift demand to palm oil, rapeseed oil, and sunflowerseed oil. Partly offsetting lower exportable supplies from Argentina, Brazil soybean oil exports are up this month and forecast just below last year’s record. However, the Government of Brazil is scheduled to meet in March to decide the mandatory biodiesel blend rate which currently sits at 10 percent. If the blend rate is raised, then exportable supplies could be lower. This would further push up

soybean oil prices and cause importers to rely more heavily on other vegetable oils.

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