Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News > News

Cereal markets to remain well supplied in 2020/21

08.10.2020 15:25 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Global cereal markets are expected to remain adequately supplied in 2020/21 despite this months downward revisions to production and inventories. With trade in cereals seen expanding in 2020/21, global cereal markets continue to demonstrate their resilience amidst the challenges and uncertainty caused by COVID-19.

FAOs latest forecast for world cereal production in 2020 has been trimmed 2.5 million tonnes since the previous report in September and now stands at 2 762 million tonnes. At this level, the global cereal output would remain at an all-time high, exceeding the previous years outturn by as much as 2.1 percent (55.7 million tonnes). This months downward revision reflects lower expectations for the global coarse grains output, with production now pegged at 1 488 million tonnes, down 0.5 percent (7.2 million tonnes) from the previous report. The bulk of the cutback reflects smaller projected maize crops in the European Union (EU), the Russian Federation and Ukraine, due to recent dry weather conditions that adversely impacted crops. Forecasts of maize production in China and the United States of America (USA) have also been lowered due to damage caused by extreme weather events; nevertheless, this years maize output in the USA is still seen to surpass last years harvest by a significant margin. An upturn in prospects for world barley production, raised by 1.6 percent to 156.6 million tonnes this month, has prevented a larger cut to the global coarse grains production forecast. The improved outlook for barley production is mainly associated with better yield prospects in the EU and the Russian Federation. FAOs forecast for world wheat production in 2020 has been revised upward by nearly 5.0 million tonnes (0.6 percent) to a record high level of around 765 million tonnes. The bulk of the upward revision concerns Australia, where continued conducive weather has led to better yield prospects and reaffirmed earlier expectations of a substantial rebound in production following two consecutive drought-affected harvests. Higher than previously anticipated yields in the EU and the Russian Federation also contributed to increases in wheat production forecasts, further propping up global production prospects. As for rice, larger than earlier anticipated plantings have boosted the production outlook for Mali, Sri Lanka, the USA and, in particular, India. However, upgrades for these countries were offset by lower forecasts for Egypt, Pakistan and, especially Thailand, which could see tight water availabilities for irrigation precluding a marked offseason production recovery this season. As a result, FAOs forecast of world rice production in 2020 remains essentially unchanged since September at 509.1 million tonnes, up 1.6 percent year-on-year and setting a new record.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2020/21 stands at 2 744 million tonnes, down 2.8 million tonnes since September but still 54.5 million tonnes (2 percent) above the estimate for 2019/20. Total utilization of coarse grains is forecast at 1 477 million tonnes, representing a 41 million tonne (2.9 percent) increase over the previous seasons level despite a cut of 2.7 million tonnes since September. Making up the bulk of the downward revision, the forecast for maize utilization has been reduced on less robust demand growth for industrial and feed uses, especially in the EU and USA. In tandem with reduced feed use expectations for maize, greater anticipated feed use of barley has pushed up the barley utilization forecast to some 6 million tonnes (4.1 percent) above last years level, as higher maize prices are seen to increase barleys competitiveness in feed rations. At 757 million tonnes, the forecast for total wheat utilization is nearly unchanged from September and 5.8 million tonnes higher than in 2019/20, driven by a rise in consumption in Asia, especially China and India. Despite a slight downward revision since September, expanding food intake is predicted to drive a 1.5 percent annual increase in world rice utilization in 2020/21 to a new record level of 510.5 million tonnes.

World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 are now forecast at 890 million tonnes, 5.9 million tonnes (0.7 percent) down from the September forecast, but still 16.7 million tonnes (1.9 percent) above the opening level and representing a record high. Based on the latest stocks and utilization forecasts, the world cereals stocks-to-use ratio in 2020/21 stands at 31.6 percent, only slightly lower than the 31.8 percent ratio in 2019/20 and still relatively high from a historical perspective. This months downward revision to stocks mainly rests on an almost 10.0 million cut in the global maize inventory forecast, canceling the previously anticipated increase. Following the recent official downward revision to the 2020/21 maize opening stocks (i.e. carryovers from 2019/20 season) in the USA, the forecast for the countrys maize inventories by the end of the current season has been trimmed. In addition, downgraded production prospects in the EU and China combined with robust feed demand have resulted in lower inventory forecasts. By contrast, better production prospects have lifted the expectations for higher global wheat inventories, which are now predicted to reach 284.8 million tonnes, some 10 million tonnes (3.7 percent) above their opening levels, but still below the 2017/18 record level. However, much of the projected wheat inventory growth is likely to be concentrated in China, with global wheat stocks excluding China expected to register a small decline. Primarily reflecting higher than earlier anticipated carry-overs in India, FAOs forecast for world rice stocks by the close of 2020/21 has been raised by 700 000 tonnes to 182.0 million tonnes, essentially on par with the previous season, which stood out as the second highest volume on record.

Global trade in cereals is forecast to reach an all-time high of 448 million tonnes in 2020/21, 6.2 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast in September and 10.6 million tonnes (2.4 percent) above the 2019/20 record level. Coarse grains trade in 2020/21 is likely to expand by 7.2 million tonnes (3.5 percent) from 2019/20, supported by stronger import demand for maize, barley and sorghum. Higher maize imports are forecast for China amidst soaring domestic prices, as well as for the EU, in view of the anticipated fall in production this year. On the export side, a strong rebound in maize exports is expected for the USA, while maize shipments from Brazil and Argentina are forecast to fall from their 2019/20 record levels. Following an upward revision this month of 3 million tonnes, global wheat trade in 2020/21 is now forecast to remain close to the 2019/20 level. Greater supplies in several major exporters, including Australia, the EU and the Russian Federation, are expected to meet the increased demand from North Africa and Asia, especially China and Egypt. Rekindling African demand is predicted to sustain a 6.9 percent expansion in world rice trade in 2021 (January-December) to 47.1 million tonnes, unchanged from September expectations. Among suppliers, consistent with the improved supply prospects, export forecasts were raised for India to an all-time high this month, but this was offset by outlook cuts made for Pakistan, Viet Nam, and especially Thailand.

Agro Perspectiva

< Prices of several staples up to multi-month highs All news for
08.10.2020
World Bank predicts Ukraine's GDP fall by 5.5% in 2020 with 1.5% growth in 2021 >

23.02.2024  
10:21 BASFs financial strength supports proposed stable dividend of 3.40 per share for the 2023 business year
10:17 The Council has chosen to ignore farmers' concerns regarding Ukraine ATMs; it is now imperative for the European Parliament to take action
20.02.2024  
20:27 South Asia is anticipated to import nearly 14 million tons wheat in 2023/24
19.02.2024  
13:00 Cargill and ENOUGH expand partnership to provide consumers with innovative, sustainable protein options
17.02.2024  
17:47 Global Environment Facility approves new FAO-led projects and programs benefiting 46 countries
16.02.2024  
09:10 The EU is at a crossroads with the Ukrainian agricultural issue - COPA-COGECA, AVES, CEFS, CEPM, CIBE, EUWEP
13.02.2024  
17:31 European farmers exempted from rules on land lying fallow
12.02.2024  
16:45 India Wheat Stocks Plummet to Lowest in 15 Years
03.02.2024  
17:35 Mandarins. Global production for 2023/24 is forecast to rise to 38.0 million tons
09:59 Record cereal output in 2023
07:15 FAO Food Price Index down again in January led by lower wheat and maize prices
29.01.2024  
10:32 President von der Leyen launches Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture
26.01.2024  
11:31 Record Exports Forecast for Egypt Oranges
23.01.2024  
17:55 With the Federal Chancellor in the show bakery
19.01.2024  
11:45 Organic production in Ukraine
16.01.2024  
23:25 Domestic consumption of dairy products may double in 2024 analysts
12.01.2024  
23:53 Competition Tightens for Leading Pork Exporter
22:55 Peru Fish Meal Exports at Lowest Level Since 2015/16 El Niño
22:43 Grains Trade Disrupted by Challenges in Key Shipping Routes
10.01.2024  
15:38 In China, the largest import market for dairy products, surplus raw milk production led to government subsidies to stabilize the domestic processing sector
09.01.2024  
11:55 The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 134.6 points in December, down 26.8 points from November
06.01.2024  
12:43 Polish fish and seafood imports continued to grow in 2022 and reached over $3 billion, with a $129 million (4 percent market share) originating from the USA
05.01.2024  
17:21 EU imports are dominated by unroasted green coffee beans, which accounts for about 90 percent of trade
17:00 FAO Food Price Index declines in December. Benchmark measure of world food commodity prices ends 2023 about 10 percent below its year-earlier level
29.12.2023  
09:53 Global and Bank of Georgia sign EUR50 million loan agreement to support small businesses
28.12.2023  
16:47 EIB delivers EUR3 million for energy-efficient upgrades in three Ukrainian cities
27.12.2023  
23:11 EU agri-food trade surplus increases in September 2023
26.12.2023  
15:05 FAO and EU launch a second grant call to bolster the recovery of Ukrainian farmers
18.12.2023  
09:00 EIB Global offers support to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia on the next step of their EU accession paths
11.12.2023  
13:21 FAO Food Price Index holds steady in November
09.12.2023  
22:15 Donau Soja: Republic of Moldova increases soya harvest in 2023 and boosts market opportunities in the EU
24.11.2023  
12:25 SUGAR MARKET BY SESVANDERHAVE
09:32 BASF signs CNY 40 billion syndicated bank term loan facility with maturity of 15 years for its Verbund site in Zhanjiang, China
21.11.2023  
23:35 2023/24 European Union sugar production estimated up despite lower area in France
13:07 Inflation forecast to drop further and EU economy to show modest upturn
20.11.2023  
14:10 BASF, The Estée Lauder Companies, RSPO and Solidaridad support Enhanced Sustainable Palm Oil Production in Lampung, Indonesia
11:27 Preserving antimicrobials for the well-being of humans, animals, plants and ecosystems
11:18 Dobrodiya Foods started the production of glute-free oat flakes under the WOWOATS brand
09.11.2023  
20:43 Ukraine Grain Exports to Slide in 2023/24 Despite Recent Improvements
07.11.2023  
18:55 Hidden costs of global agrifood systems worth at least $10 trillion
03.11.2023  
20:13 As winter weather closes in on the Northern Hemisphere, the demand for limes changes accordingly
02.11.2023  
11:21 Wärtsilä supports Denmarks green energy future with opening of new biogas liquefaction plant
13.10.2023  
21:35 Shmyhal speaks about progress in issue of confiscation of Russian assets abroad
21:27 Immediate action is needed to get Africa on track with global goals
06.10.2023  
12:55 Global cereal production set to reach a record high in 2023, while trade could contract in 2023/24
18.09.2023  
13:55 Ukraine will sue Poland, Hungary and Slovakia over agricultural bans
15.09.2023  
21:02 Following the expiry of the restrictive measures on Ukrainian exports of grain and other foodstuff to the EU, Ukraine agrees to introduce measures to avoid a renewed surge in EU imports
13.09.2023  
17:54 Biodel AG Secures Series A Investment from Pangaea Ventures to Advance Novel Regenerative Agriculture Technologies
07:25 Rice Export Prices Highest in 15 Years as India Restricts Trade
11.09.2023  
17:54 Export Bans, Black Sea Tensions, Affecting Food Markets - WTO Agriculture and Commodities Division

Also available: 


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2024 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 67 4473802; +380 67 5964652
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com