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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market

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Bulgaria’s 2019 broiler production expanded by two percent over 2018

17.07.2020 11:26 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Sofia (Bulgaria), âulgarian broiler production grew by two percent in 2019, while duck meat output decreased sharply by 24 percent from 2018, due to animal health challenges. Consumer demand for poultry meat reached record levels. 2019 chicken meat imports grew by over 10 percent, stimulated by favorable domestic demand. Exports decreased by five percent in favor of domestic sales. Prospects for 2020 are cautiously optimistic and highly dependent on Bulgaria’s COVID-19 situation and its effect on the economy and consumer incomes. Despite strong poultry meat retail sales following the novel coronavirus outbreak to date, Post expects that the subsequent shutdown of the food service industry and the decline in tourism sector will negatively affect the poultry demand.

MY2020 Supply and Demand Forecast

Bulgaria’s 2019 broiler production expanded by two percent over 2018. Although 2019 chicken stocks began 16 percent higher than 2018, 2019 stock ended four percent lower from 2018 Animal health and related higher biosecurity challenges were drivers of this development.

In February and March 2020, Bulgaria notified eight highly pathogenic avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks, mainly on duck farms in the Plovdiv area, which is a key center production. The last outbreak occurred on June 4, in the Plovdiv area on a large layer farm. The Bulgarian Food Safety Agency updated two major regulations (Ordinance 11–252/January, 24, 2020 and Ordinance 11–741/March 20, 2020) regarding disease control for poultry farms, introducing more stringent biosecurity standards and stricter surveillance.

The latest data (January-March 2020) indicate stagnant broiler slaughter (0.4 percent increase) and a 42-percent increase in duck slaughter, resulting in 11-percent growth in total poultry meat output over the corresponding period in 2019. Post forecasts that 2020 broiler meat production will stagnate or increase

slightly over 2019 due to COVID-19’s impact on the economy and trade. Since consumer incomes, food service, and tourism largely drive domestic poultry meat consumption, 2020 demand is likely to decline. Post expects a recovery in local demand and production in 2021.

MY2019 Supply and Demand

Farms: Large farms (over 10,000 birds) registered a decline in stocks while the number of small farms tripled and their stocks increased by almost 500 percent. However, collectively, these farms accounted for only 2.4 percent of Bulgaria’s total chicken inventory. Larger farms accounted for 97.6 percent of the total inventory. Vertical integration and export demand continued to shape the industry.

Poultry Meat Supply: In 2019, commercial poultry production stagnated while non-commercial production continued to decline by 13 percent.

Broiler Meat Output: Broiler meat output increased by 2.1 percent and accounted for 78 percent (76 percent in 2018) of commercially produced poultry meat, compared to 17 percent for duck meat. The average carcass weight was consistent at 1.7 kg. The market share for cuts expanded and accounted for over 46 percent of broiler meat retail stocks. This trend indicates an increasing demand for value-added and convenience products.

Duck Meat Output: Duck meat output declined substantially by 24.5 percent due to HPAI outbreaks. The decline in duck meat production drove downward the total poultry meat production figure.

Agro Perspectiva

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