Coronavirus will hit economies across all EBRD regions
18.03.2020 18:03 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Recovery could be robust once virus contained The coronavirus pandemic will have a negative impact on economies across the EBRD regions but recovery could be robust once the outbreak is contained, according to the Bank’s economists. The EBRD, which invests in 38 emerging economies across three continents has launched an emergency solidarity package worth an Initial EUR1 billion to support companies in its countries suffering because of the crisis. More detailed economic forecasts for the EBRD regions will be issued at the end of March. According to the EBRD’s economists, the actual and feared impact of the coronavirus is affecting supply and demand simultaneously. The final economic impact will depend on the duration of the pandemic, as well as policy response by national authorities and governments in key export markets. Countries are being affected directly by public health measures put in place to fight the virus as well as by precautions taken by individuals. Containment efforts will lead to lower consumption of services, such as restaurants, recreation, and to some extent transportation. They will also negatively affect household consumption of goods. Moreover, households may postpone some consumption due to uncertainty created by the pandemic. As demand decreases, many firms, especially SMEs, may experience a sharp decrease in revenues, tightening their liquidity. Overleveraged firms will record higher liquidity constraints, increasing the risk of bankruptcy. This may be mitigated by the banking sector, which could allow delayed payments, and depends on the health of the banking sector, as well as the crisis measures imposed by the authorities. In a more severe scenario of a prolonged crisis, a number of companies may resort to laying off employees. Indirect effects on EBRD economies include the disruption of global supply chains, weaker foreign demand, lower oil and commodity prices and wide regional declines in tourism and travel. The flow of remittances to some EBRD countries could drop significantly if emigrants lose their jobs or cannot travel. FULL PAPER: EBRD ECONOMIC ASSESSEMENT • The coronavirus pandemic will have a negative impact on the economic performance of EBRD regions. However, once the outbreak is contained, we expect a robust recovery. • In the long-term we expect a reorganisation and redirection of global supply chains. This may create new opportunities for countries that have not traditionally been on the top of investors’ lists. • EBRD economists will reveal detailed forecasts for countries and regions at the end of March. The actual and feared impact of the coronavirus is affecting supply and demand simultaneously, i.e. through a parallel supply and demand shock. The final economic impact will depend on the duration of the pandemic, as well as the policy response by the national authorities and governments in key export markets. Countries are affected directly by public health measures enacted to fight the virus as well as by precautions taken by individuals. Although in some sectors remote work allows employees to carry on with their tasks, in other sectors production will be disrupted. Containment efforts will lead to lower consumption of services, such as restaurants, recreation, and to some extent transportation. They will also negatively affect household consumption of goods. Moreover, households may postpone some consumption due to uncertainty created by the pandemic. As demand decreases, many firms, especially SMEs, may experience a sharp decrease in revenues, tightening their liquidity. Overleveraged firms will record higher liquidity constraints, increasing the risk of bankruptcy. This may be mitigated by the banking sector, which could allow delayed payments, and depends on the health of the banking sector, as well as the crisis measures imposed by the authorities. There will be also indirect effects due to disruption of global supply chains, weaker foreign demand, lower oil and commodity prices and wide regional declines in tourism and travel. Some countries are already experiencing disruption in input supply due to temporary closure of Chinese factories, although this effect may not be large, due to a limited exposure of most countries. Countries integrated into Italian supply chains are also being affected. Oil and commodity exporters are hit by lower Chinese demand and a fall in prices. Tourism sector. Tourist arrivals to now decline in 2020 globally, down from a 34% growth forecast before the COVID-19 crisis (UNWTO). We expect the economic impact to be particularly severe in Adriatic and Mediterranean countries, as well as SEMED and the Caucasus, where tourism is a crucial contributor to GDP growth. Remittance channels. The flow of remittances to CoOs could drop significantly if emigrants lose their jobs (global downturn) or cannot travel (flight and border restrictions), this would affect the BOP and consumption, particularly in some Central Asian countries and the Western Balkans. In a more severe scenario of a prolonged crisis, a number of companies may resort to laying off employees. This will exacerbate the demand shock. This may especially affect those employed on temporary contracts. This effect could in fact be instantaneous for workers on zero-hour contracts or self-employed. In some countries of the region, the prevalence of such forms of employment is very high. Also, as global uncertainty increases due to the unknowns of the crisis, capital markets become more sensitive to certain country specific vulnerabilities, as external financing becomes stricter. Finally, the ultimate impact of the crisis will also depend on the policies taken by the authorities. For instance, monetary policy response in the CEE region directly depends on the actions of the ECB. However, the monetary policy stimulation in Poland, Hungary or Romania would face significant trade-offs, as inflation has been growing above targets of late. Fiscal policy response will depend on the fiscal space of each of the country. In the current circumstances, we would expect market access to be the only fiscal constraint to be reckoned with.
26.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:28 |
Ongoing Economic Crisis in Argentina Impacts Dairy |
15.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:28 |
Decline of China Pork Imports Continues in 2024 |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:20 |
Lower Prices Propel Mexico 2023/24 Soybean Meal Imports |
13.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:15 |
China Imports of Major Feed Grains at Record for Oct-May period |
12.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
01:08 |
Climate risks projected to affect fish biomass around the world's ocean, FAO report says |
06.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:15 |
Global cereal production 2024 forecast scaled up and now set to exceed the 2023 level |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:01 |
FAO Food Price Index stable in June |
03.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
12:31 |
World pear production for MY 2023/24 is projected up more than 275,000 tons to 25.2 million |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
12:23 |
U.S. wheat exports are forecast to rebound by more than a million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year |
01.07.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:58 |
World apple production for MY 2023/24 is forecast to rise more than 700,000 tons to 83.7 million |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:39 |
World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast to rebound 7.1 million bags |
25.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
17:57 |
Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European banks report strengthening loan demand and improving profitability |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
17:05 |
Global Environment Facility approves $70 million to support FAO projects in 28 countries |
24.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
04:15 |
Emergency brake triggered for oat imports from Ukraine |
23.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:00 |
Colombia Production: Two Periods of Sharp Decline |
19.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
15:35 |
World pear production for MY 2023/24 is projected up more than 275,000 tons to 25.2 million |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:35 |
India Apple Imports Forecast at a Record High |
12.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:21 |
FAO Food Price Index slightly up in May: higher cereal and dairy prices offset easing sugar and vegetable oil quotations |
03.06.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
14:04 |
Commission clarifies support for farmers in case of exceptional weather events |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
13:33 |
Digitalization: it is time to bridge the gap between urban and rural areas |
22.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
18:25 |
Two years of Solidarity Lanes have brought the EU, Ukraine and Moldova closer together |
21.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:10 |
Seven additional private sector leaders announce support for Antimicrobial Use Stewardship Principles in poultry, now includes over 40% of global poultry meat production |
13.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
23:32 |
EU extends trade support to Ukraine for one more year |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
04:36 |
European Union corn is forecast at 18.0 million tons |
11.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
18:55 |
2024/25 Grain Consumption Expands while Trade Moderates |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
18:47 |
Oilseeds Stocks Forecast to Reach Record Highs in 2024/25 |
06.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:17 |
The International Year of the Woman Farmer in 2026 Approved by the UN General Assembly, it will increase awareness of the crucial role women farmers play in agrifood systems |
04.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:10 |
2024 wheat forecast trimmed |
03.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
21:25 |
Rising international quotations for meat, cereals and vegetable oils offset drops for dairy and sugar |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
07:10 |
El Niño and La Niña: four crucial steps to build climate resilience |
01.05.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
08:25 |
Acute hunger remains persistently high in 59 countries with 1 in 5 people assessed in need of critical urgent action |
29.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:43 |
New CEO at BASF: Martin Brudermüller hands over to Markus Kamieth |
25.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:45 |
Parliament approves a revision of the EU’s common agricultural policy |
23.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
16:23 |
MEPs approve trade support measures for Ukraine with protection for EU farmers |
17.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
18:08 |
Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food predicts this year’s harvest of grains and oilseeds at about 74 million tonnes |
16.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
12:12 |
West Africa Cocoa Shortage Pushes Up Prices |
11.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
23:48 |
U.S. Soybean Meal Exports Forecast at Consecutive Records in 2022/23 and 2023/24 |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
23:10 |
EU Wheat Exports Challenged by Russia’s Growing Dominance |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
11:30 |
Country of origin of honey must be clearly visible on the label. EU honey traceability system to be developed |
10.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
15:59 |
Commission starts setting up the Agriculture and Food Chain Observatory |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
15:33 |
Commission approves ˆ2.2 billion German State aid scheme to support the decarbonisation of industrial processes to foster the transition to a net-zero economy |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
13:17 |
Donau Soja urges EU for clarity on EUDR implementation |
09.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:44 |
Ukraine remained the third source of EU imports in 2023, with a value of EUR 11.8 billion |
06.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:04 |
World cereal output seen up in 2023/24 |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:55 |
FAO Food Price Index rises in March |
05.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:04 |
Shellfish Crop Insurance Program Offers Oyster Producers Needed Protection from Environmental Challenges and More |
03.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
23:01 |
Croatian horseradish root ‘Ludbreški hren' added to register of Protected Designations of Origin |
02.04.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
10:15 |
FAO and chef Fatmata Binta announce new project to empower women fonio producers in Ghana |
28.03.2024 |
|
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
![](/_img/new/px.gif) |
|
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
12:55 |
Council compromise on Ukraine ATMs – Only a half step forward in the right direction |
![](/_img/new/picto_new.gif) |
09:18 |
Commission approves amendment to Italian State aid scheme to support companies in Friuli Venezia Giulia in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine |
Also available:
![](/_img/new/px.gif)
|