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China Soy Demand to Gain on Higher Hog Numbers, Boosting Imports
03.08.2011 11:29 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Soybean demand from China, the biggest buyer, may climb in the second half as consumption by the hog industry increases, boosting processing profits and imports, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
Crushing will likely expand as high pork prices and government subsidies prompt farmers to boost pig production, according to three researchers surveyed by Bloomberg News. The announcement by Wilmar International Ltd. (WIL) that it will lift cooking oil prices may signal the government has ended price caps, improving crushing sentiment.
Rising consumption may boost prices of soybeans in Chicago, which have declined 1.7 percent this year partly because of lower-than-expected demand in China caused by smaller pig herds. Gains in crush margins may raise profits of Wilmar and China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd. (606), the top two crushers.
«The market is generally more optimistic about the second half,» said Monica Tu, an analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. who took part in the survey. «Animal feed demand in the third quarter has shown evident improvement.»
Imports dropped 8 percent to 23.7 million tons in the first six months, according to customs data. Annually, shipments may decline for the first time since 2004 as processors use cheaper domestic crops and lower hog numbers curb feed demand, state- owned Grain.gov.cn said July 18. China crushes soybeans mainly for the meal to raise pigs, chickens and livestock.
China aims to increase the number of breeding sows as it rolls out incentives to hog farmers to boost the supply of pork and stabilize prices, the Ministry of Agriculture said yesterday.
Crushing of domestic soybeans may be as much as 5.3 million tons this year, compared with 2.2 million tons in 2010, Grain.gov.cn has said.
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