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Risks of further large wheat price spikes have eased : IMF
07.09.2010 11:57 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Wheat prices has risen almost 85 percent higher in the two months through early August. The rise was driven by a weather-related supply shock emanating from key exporters in the former Soviet Union. Now IMF study says that «despite a large rise in the two months to August, wheat prices remain well below levels reached during the boom in 2008 and market pricing indicates that the risks of further large price spikes have eased.»
Over the past two months, the estimated global wheat harvest for 2010–11 has been revised lower by 23 million tonnes or about 3½ percent. This would represent an annual decline in global production of just over 5 percent, with Russia and other former Soviet Union countries accounting for about three-fourths of the total decline.
The drought situation and wildfires in Russia and Kazakhstan; and heavy rains in Ukraine have led to significant fall in global wheat production estimates. By June 2010 which marks the harvest year close, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine accounted for about 15 percent of global wheat production. Canada and the European Union also saw modest decline in wheat production due to weather.
United States, the European Union, and Australia may boost wheat exports.
IMF Survey predicts that «wheat production should recover quickly next year, assuming a return to more normal weather conditions. Global wheat inventories are larger now than in 2006–07 and should be sufficient to absorb a large part of the supply shock.»
Current market price and the modest increase in Wheat futures indicate that the shortfall is temporary in nature. The price increase in substitute products like rice and corn have been mild.
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