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AWB lifts 2010-11 wheat pool forecast
22.07.2010 11:38 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
AWB announced on July 19 that it has raised its forecast wheat pool returns for the 2010–11 season by up to A$40 a tonne, as the world wheat supply/demand balance comes under pressure from dry conditions in Russia, Kazakhstan and northern Europe.
AWBs estimated pool return (EPR) for benchmark grade APW wheat in the Western Pool is now A$295 a tonne, up A$35; ANW1 noodle wheat is now A$310 a tonne, up A$40; and APW wheat in the Eastern Pool is up A$36, to a new EPR of A$290 a tonne (FOB, excl GST).
AWB General Manager Commodities Mitch Morison said although the U.S. is holding considerable wheat stocks from the previous season and is having another good year, over recent weeks the market has responded to cutbacks in production estimates in Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and parts of northern Europe.
«When you see the production estimate drop for one country by a few million tonnes, it is a still a small amount, but when similar revisions apply across a number of key exporters the impact adds up,» Morison said. "Its not just dry weather either; Canada has faced the opposite situation with excessively wet conditions during their crop planting period and parts of Eastern Europe are now seeing quality downgrading due to rain on their harvest.
"The quality issues are likely to create opportunities for Australian wheat sales, as consumers of Russian and higher protein German wheat will need to source grain from alternative suppliers; this translates as increased demand for Australian wheat into African and Middle Eastern markets.
"The northern hemisphere harvests still have some time to run and it will be many weeks yet before an accurate quality and tonnage picture appears for all regions, however the market now seems to have broken firmly away from its low levels of a couple of months ago and as our season proceeds, that is very good news for Australian growers.
«During June we had quite a number of growers contract wheat to AWB via our early commitment program, so we are taking advantage of the improved prices to assist our hedging program associated with that grain.»
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