Lower forecasts for 2022/23 global cereal output, utilization and trade

07.10.2022 11:11 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — FAO today also published the latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, which further lowered the global cereal production forecast for 2022, now pegged at 2 768 million tonnes, 1.7 percent below the 2021 outturn.

World coarse grain output is forecast at 1 468 million tonnes, down 2.8 percent year-on-year, due largely to adverse crop conditions in the United States of America. World rice production is forecast at 512.8 million tonnes, down 2.4 percent from its all-time high reached in 2021, but still an above-average crop. Downward revision to rice output since September reflect summer dryness and high temperatures in China and flooding in Pakistan. FAO raised in September its global wheat production forecast to 787.2 million tonnes, up 1.0 percent from the previous year and on track to mark a record high, due to better-than-expected yields in the European Union and the Russian Federation.

World cereal utilization over 2022/23 is now forecast to decline by 0.5 percent from the previous season to 2 784 million tonnes, with the reduction mostly reflecting reduced feed use.

World cereal stocks at the close of the 2023 seasons are forecast to contract by 1.6 percent below their opening levels, down to 848 million tonnes. The world cereals stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 29.7 percent in 2022/23 from 31 percent in the previous year, still relatively high from a historical perspective.

World trade in cereals is predicted to decline by 2.4 percent in 2022/23 (July/June) from the preceding marketing season, with foreseen contractions in trade of all major cereals. Among other factors, the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the strength of the United States dollar are seen contributing to this decline.

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