Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News

Cereal markets to remain well supplied in 2020/21

08.10.2020 15:25 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Global cereal markets are expected to remain adequately supplied in 2020/21 despite this months downward revisions to production and inventories. With trade in cereals seen expanding in 2020/21, global cereal markets continue to demonstrate their resilience amidst the challenges and uncertainty caused by COVID-19.

FAOs latest forecast for world cereal production in 2020 has been trimmed 2.5 million tonnes since the previous report in September and now stands at 2 762 million tonnes. At this level, the global cereal output would remain at an all-time high, exceeding the previous years outturn by as much as 2.1 percent (55.7 million tonnes). This months downward revision reflects lower expectations for the global coarse grains output, with production now pegged at 1 488 million tonnes, down 0.5 percent (7.2 million tonnes) from the previous report. The bulk of the cutback reflects smaller projected maize crops in the European Union (EU), the Russian Federation and Ukraine, due to recent dry weather conditions that adversely impacted crops. Forecasts of maize production in China and the United States of America (USA) have also been lowered due to damage caused by extreme weather events; nevertheless, this years maize output in the USA is still seen to surpass last years harvest by a significant margin. An upturn in prospects for world barley production, raised by 1.6 percent to 156.6 million tonnes this month, has prevented a larger cut to the global coarse grains production forecast. The improved outlook for barley production is mainly associated with better yield prospects in the EU and the Russian Federation. FAOs forecast for world wheat production in 2020 has been revised upward by nearly 5.0 million tonnes (0.6 percent) to a record high level of around 765 million tonnes. The bulk of the upward revision concerns Australia, where continued conducive weather has led to better yield prospects and reaffirmed earlier expectations of a substantial rebound in production following two consecutive drought-affected harvests. Higher than previously anticipated yields in the EU and the Russian Federation also contributed to increases in wheat production forecasts, further propping up global production prospects. As for rice, larger than earlier anticipated plantings have boosted the production outlook for Mali, Sri Lanka, the USA and, in particular, India. However, upgrades for these countries were offset by lower forecasts for Egypt, Pakistan and, especially Thailand, which could see tight water availabilities for irrigation precluding a marked offseason production recovery this season. As a result, FAOs forecast of world rice production in 2020 remains essentially unchanged since September at 509.1 million tonnes, up 1.6 percent year-on-year and setting a new record.

The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2020/21 stands at 2 744 million tonnes, down 2.8 million tonnes since September but still 54.5 million tonnes (2 percent) above the estimate for 2019/20. Total utilization of coarse grains is forecast at 1 477 million tonnes, representing a 41 million tonne (2.9 percent) increase over the previous seasons level despite a cut of 2.7 million tonnes since September. Making up the bulk of the downward revision, the forecast for maize utilization has been reduced on less robust demand growth for industrial and feed uses, especially in the EU and USA. In tandem with reduced feed use expectations for maize, greater anticipated feed use of barley has pushed up the barley utilization forecast to some 6 million tonnes (4.1 percent) above last years level, as higher maize prices are seen to increase barleys competitiveness in feed rations. At 757 million tonnes, the forecast for total wheat utilization is nearly unchanged from September and 5.8 million tonnes higher than in 2019/20, driven by a rise in consumption in Asia, especially China and India. Despite a slight downward revision since September, expanding food intake is predicted to drive a 1.5 percent annual increase in world rice utilization in 2020/21 to a new record level of 510.5 million tonnes.

World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 are now forecast at 890 million tonnes, 5.9 million tonnes (0.7 percent) down from the September forecast, but still 16.7 million tonnes (1.9 percent) above the opening level and representing a record high. Based on the latest stocks and utilization forecasts, the world cereals stocks-to-use ratio in 2020/21 stands at 31.6 percent, only slightly lower than the 31.8 percent ratio in 2019/20 and still relatively high from a historical perspective. This months downward revision to stocks mainly rests on an almost 10.0 million cut in the global maize inventory forecast, canceling the previously anticipated increase. Following the recent official downward revision to the 2020/21 maize opening stocks (i.e. carryovers from 2019/20 season) in the USA, the forecast for the countrys maize inventories by the end of the current season has been trimmed. In addition, downgraded production prospects in the EU and China combined with robust feed demand have resulted in lower inventory forecasts. By contrast, better production prospects have lifted the expectations for higher global wheat inventories, which are now predicted to reach 284.8 million tonnes, some 10 million tonnes (3.7 percent) above their opening levels, but still below the 2017/18 record level. However, much of the projected wheat inventory growth is likely to be concentrated in China, with global wheat stocks excluding China expected to register a small decline. Primarily reflecting higher than earlier anticipated carry-overs in India, FAOs forecast for world rice stocks by the close of 2020/21 has been raised by 700 000 tonnes to 182.0 million tonnes, essentially on par with the previous season, which stood out as the second highest volume on record.

Global trade in cereals is forecast to reach an all-time high of 448 million tonnes in 2020/21, 6.2 million tonnes higher than the previous forecast in September and 10.6 million tonnes (2.4 percent) above the 2019/20 record level. Coarse grains trade in 2020/21 is likely to expand by 7.2 million tonnes (3.5 percent) from 2019/20, supported by stronger import demand for maize, barley and sorghum. Higher maize imports are forecast for China amidst soaring domestic prices, as well as for the EU, in view of the anticipated fall in production this year. On the export side, a strong rebound in maize exports is expected for the USA, while maize shipments from Brazil and Argentina are forecast to fall from their 2019/20 record levels. Following an upward revision this month of 3 million tonnes, global wheat trade in 2020/21 is now forecast to remain close to the 2019/20 level. Greater supplies in several major exporters, including Australia, the EU and the Russian Federation, are expected to meet the increased demand from North Africa and Asia, especially China and Egypt. Rekindling African demand is predicted to sustain a 6.9 percent expansion in world rice trade in 2021 (January-December) to 47.1 million tonnes, unchanged from September expectations. Among suppliers, consistent with the improved supply prospects, export forecasts were raised for India to an all-time high this month, but this was offset by outlook cuts made for Pakistan, Viet Nam, and especially Thailand.

Agro Perspectiva

< Prices of several staples up to multi-month highs All news for
08.10.2020
World Bank predicts Ukraine's GDP fall by 5.5% in 2020 with 1.5% growth in 2021 >

24.07.2021  
10:36 Ethiopia: Worlds Third‐Largest Arabica Coffee Producer
23.07.2021  
10:49 U.S. Production and Exports Forecast Down Despite Global Gains
16.07.2021  
15:06 Global pork production for 2021 is revised up nearly 4 percent to 105.1 million tons
12:50 Global Soybean Trade Slows on Weaker China Demand
14.07.2021  
13:45 UN report: Pandemic year marked by spike in world hunger
11:00 Australia to Expand Wheat Exports as North America Faces Tighter Supplies
10:37 Philippines Pork Imports Expected to Reach Record Levels
08.07.2021  
15:12 World cereal inventories expected to rise for the first time since 2017/18
13:15 Global food prices fall for the first time in 12 months
06.07.2021  
12:30 ASTARTA Exported the First Batch of Organic Products
30.06.2021  
18:05 Turkey. In MY 2020/21, orange production is estimated to decrease 1.3 million MT
29.06.2021  
11:55 Tetra Pak to invest 100 million to expand European manufacturing for more sustainable solutions
25.06.2021  
17:17 FRESH APPLES. World production for 2020/21 is projected down 3.6 million tons to 75.9 million
24.06.2021  
13:05 Vattenfall to sell 49.5% of the offshore wind farm Hollandse Kust Zuid to BASF
17.06.2021  
12:30 Minister Bozukov: Environmental commitments in agriculture need adequate economic incentives
16.06.2021  
10:52 U.S. Corn Exports at a New High for 2020/21
09.06.2021  
17:05 Iraq Issues Decisions to Restrict the Movement of Wheat and Barley
16:37 Case IH Introduces New Planter Tech, Applicator Configurations
04.06.2021  
13:46 World cereal markets heading towards a record production in 2021/22 but only a marginal increase foreseen for stocks
03.06.2021  
14:29 Japan. The tariff-rate quota volumes for butter at 6,400 MT and NFDM at 750 MT for JFY 2021
12:25 Burma. Wheat consumption is forecast to decrease in 2021 due to economic contraction and cash shortages post-coup
09:25 Pests destroy up to 40 percent of global crops and cost $220 billion of losses
01.06.2021  
10:55 Tetra Pak's optimal integrated solution helps cut water usage and carbon emissions for the dairy sector
31.05.2021  
11:53 European Union sugar production is forecast 7 percent higher to 15.8 million tons
26.05.2021  
13:02 Sugar Production Up Globally in 2021/22, Stable in the United States and Mexico
18.05.2021  
13:33 ASTARTA Completed its Sowing Campaign 2021
17.05.2021  
16:47 CNH Industrial announces subsidiary notes offering
14.05.2021  
14:15 ASTARTA Started Raw Sugar Processing
12.05.2021  
14:01 For the MY 2021/22 forecasts Bangladeshs rice production to increase, assuming friendly weather and increased yield
12:51 Total Latvian wheat, rye, mixed grains, triticale, barley, corn, and oat production in MY 2021/22 is forecast at 3.2 MMT
07.05.2021  
13:22 Global cereal markets tighten as demand remains strong in 2020/21
12:25 International food prices continue rising in April
06.05.2021  
15:38 New Zealand. Total milk production is forecast at 22.2 MMT
05.05.2021  
16:47 CNH Industrial. Consolidated revenues of $7.5 billion (up 37% compared to Q1 2020)
13:21 Australia. Wheat production is forecast at 27 MMT in MY 2021/22
30.04.2021  
14:21 ASTARTA Finished Sugar Beet Planting
29.04.2021  
11:49 Manitou Group: Q121 revenues of 471m, +12% vs. Q120
11:39 BASF increased sales by 2.6 billion compared with the first quarter of 2020 to 19.4 billion
28.04.2021  
17:00 Spain: Spanish Cheese Exports May Rebound in 2021
27.04.2021  
16:47 Argentina. Wheat production is estimated at 20.5 million tons in 2021/2022
26.04.2021  
16:35 Small family farmers produce a third of the worlds food
10:09 Industrial production in Ukraine 2.1% up in March 2021 - statistics
24.04.2021  
07:20 Finance Ministry proposes to change criteria for land valuation in settlements by 2023
22.04.2021  
11:28 Giving a voice to soil organisms our silent allies in the fight against hunger
21.04.2021  
09:53 NBU sends UAH 24.4 bln of profit to state budget
20.04.2021  
11:50 Vietnam. Soybean meal demand for feed use is forecast to increase in MY2021/22 as the swine herd repopulates
16.04.2021  
14:11 NBU raises key policy rate to 7.5%
14.04.2021  
17:10 Brazil Meat Exports Continue to Grow
13.04.2021  
16:25 Coffee is considered a priority crop by the Angolan Government
12.04.2021  
11:20 Brazil Soybean Exports Record Large in March

Also available: 


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2021 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 44 5934543; +380 44 5934540
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com