Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   

AGRO PHOTO

FIELD DAY CONTINENTAL FARMERS GROUP
 


Home > News

Russian Federation. Steady demand for chicken meat and ample feed supplies are expected to lift production to 4.725 MMT in 2021

23.09.2020 14:55 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Moscow (Russian Federation), steady demand for chicken meat and ample feed supplies are expected to lift production to 4.725 MMT (RTC) in 2021. Exports in 2021 are projected at 220,000 MT (RTC) with shipments to traditional and recently opened markets expected to grow at a slower rate than the 22 percent growth in 2020 driven by entry into the Chinese market. A weaker ruble will spur export initiatives but harm margins from domestic sales. In this environment, leading poultry companies are expected to increase their market shares at the expense of smaller players.

Executive summary

Steady demand for chicken meat, availability of feed from an ample grain crop in Russia and growing imports of soybean meal support production growth to 4.725 M (RTC) in 2021. A weaker ruble will drive export initiatives but will harm margins from domestic sales due to increased costs of imported breeding flock, feed additives, veterinary medicine, and equipment maintenance. Leading companies with complex value-added chains, multiregional presence and access to credit are more resilient to lower margins. Industry leaders will further increase their market shares at the expense of smaller and less efficient players. The forecast for 2020 production is raised to 4.715 M (RTC). One percent growth year-over-year reflects better-then-expected exports, namely to China, and low immediate impact on broiler industry operations from the pandemic-related recession. As of the date of the report, no Covidrelated closures of chicken farms and processing plants have been reported.

2021 exports are forecast at 220,000 MT (RTC), the growth of shipments to traditional and recently opened markets continue at a smaller pace compared to 22 percent year-over-year growth of exports in 2020, when Russian exporters successfully entered the market capturing the benefit of rising Chinese imports.

Domestic consumption is forecast flat at 4.715 MMT (RTC). The segment of population in difficult economic conditions continues to grow in Russia due to Covid-related deterioration of disposable incomes. The current economic environment limits opportunities for growth of chicken meat sales.

Moreover, competition with pork will intensify, pork prices are falling due to rising domestic supply from the modernized pork industry.

In response to Ruble depreciation and a spike in wheat exports in the first quarter of 2020, the Government of Russia (GOR) introduced a series of measures to contain domestic prices of wheat and forage grains. The GOR limited exports of locally harvested grains and oilseeds, simplified imports of soybean meals and activated State Grain Reserves. GOR will likely pursue protectionist policies in 2021, and forage grains prices will remain attractive in the market.

Considering the stagnating domestic demand, chicken meat producers are striving to maintain their gains in China and expand in other export markets. These goals are threatened by risks related to ongoing spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on the European continent and in Asia. The epizootic environment was favorable in Russia until August 2020, when HPAI outbreaks were reported in Chelyabinsk and Omsk regions. In the case of further spread of the disease, the moderately optimistic production and export forecasts shall be revised.

Key Macroeconomic indicators are forecast to decline in 2020 due to Covid-related disruptions: GDP — 4.5/ — 5.5 percent; Real Disposable Incomes — 3.8 percent. Real Disposable Incomes have fallen a record 8 percent in the second quarter. The Ruble depreciated 15.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in year-todate terms as of August, 15, 2020.

Agro Perspectiva

< World peach and nectarine production is forecast down 1.1 million metric tons to 21.0 million All news for
23.09.2020
Czech Republic Sees Solid Harvest Despite Initial Drought >

28.10.2020  
17:00 European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and FAO approve COVID-19 technical support package
16:45 2020 EU milk deliveries will grow by one percent
27.10.2020  
16:41 Pork. Global productionisforecast 4 percent higher in 2021 due to rebounding output in countries affected by ASF
26.10.2020  
17:00 FAO and OIE kickstart global initiative to stop spread of deadly pig disease
16:50 KWS Group achieved an approximately 15% increase in net sales to 1.28 billion in fiscal 2019/2020
16:35 NBU keeps key policy rate at 6%
23.10.2020  
13:00 Cargill invests to promote circular economy with its first multi waste- and residues-based biodiesel plant
21.10.2020  
13:55 International prices of wheat and maize rose sharply in September but those of rice edged down
20.10.2020  
20:45 ACC insists on early adoption of law on govt bond issue for settlements with 'green' energy
20:25 New Zealands milk production in 2021 is forecast at 22 MMT
16.10.2020  
15:10 Despite the threat of the COVID-19 pandemic and lumpy skin disease, Taiwans $1.5 billion dairy sector remains strong
15.10.2020  
15:10 IMF improves assessment of Ukraine's GDP fall in 2020 to 7.2%, growth to 3% in 2021
12.10.2020  
11:35 Manitou Group formalizes its partnership with NEOLINE to reduce its carbon footprint
09.10.2020  
16:25 Inflation in Ukraine grows by 0.5%, falls to 2.3% year-over-year in Sept statistics
15:30 Prospects for U.S. Corn in Latin America
08.10.2020  
16:10 World Bank predicts Ukraine's GDP fall by 5.5% in 2020 with 1.5% growth in 2021
15:25 Cereal markets to remain well supplied in 2020/21
14:25 Prices of several staples up to multi-month highs
05.10.2020  
16:30 UAE consumption of chicken meat products has fallen but stabilized
15:05 Ovostar creates JV with Dutch JMMMTJL to sell egg products
13:30 EBRD provides working capital loan to Ukraines Astarta
30.09.2020  
18:20 FAO's Committee on Agriculture focuses on how livestock sector transformation can contribute to achieving the SDGs
17:45 Argentina forecasts 2021 chicken meat production up 2% at 2.23 MMT
29.09.2020  
16:35 CNH Industrial announces subsidiary notes offering
28.09.2020  
17:15 Czech Republic Sees Solid Harvest Despite Initial Drought
23.09.2020  
14:55 Russian Federation. Steady demand for chicken meat and ample feed supplies are expected to lift production to 4.725 MMT in 2021
14:40 World peach and nectarine production is forecast down 1.1 million metric tons to 21.0 million
22.09.2020  
12:15 High-level roundtable calls for strengthened collaboration in the Near East and North Africa
12:09 State Statistics Service confirms assessment of Ukraine's GDP fall at 11.4% in Q2 2020
11:45 Belarus plants half of area under winter grain
11:20 Fitch affirms Kernel at 'BB-', outlook stable
11:11 Consumer confidence of Ukrainians continue improving in Aug study
17.09.2020  
17:15 Development of secondary govt bond market could solve problem of financing of state budget 2021 deficit member of NBU Council
16:25 Drought Continues to Stymie Romanian Oilseeds
16:15 Private Exporters Report Sales Activity for China and Unknown Destinations
16.09.2020  
15:30 Case IH Adds New Configurations to Seeding and Planting Portfolios
14:20 COVID-19 impacts driving up acute hunger in countries already in food crisis
13:25 J.P. Morgan expects Ukraine's GDP to fall by 4% in 2020, grow by 6% in 2021
15.09.2020  
16:15 Belarus Expanded Crush Capacity Drives Soybean
15:45 The world is falling behind on SDGs
11.09.2020  
16:20 Money supply in Ukraine expands by 0.7% in Aug
14:12 Asia-Pacific countries pledged bold and innovative action for food security and livelihoods
13:35 FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypts wheat production in MY 2020/2021 to reach 8.9 MMT
13:30 Fall of Ukraine's GDP slows down to 6.2% in seven months Economy Ministry
12:00 Hot testing starts at Chernobyl spent-fuel storage
10.09.2020  
16:15 Private exporters reported to export sales of 195,000 metric tons of soybeans
16:10 BASF New Business and G-Philos sign MoU for cooperation in power-to-gas (P2G) business
09.09.2020  
13:33 PrivatBank remains most profitable Ukrainian bank, Ukreximbank unprofitable in seven months
07.09.2020  
15:00 NBU retains grain harvest forecast at 72 mln tonnes in 2020
13:25 EBRD providing 10 million loan to Ukraines Agrofusion

Also available: 

Agrarian Week in digital



READ ON-LINE




NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2020 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 44 4868119; +380 44 5934540
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com