Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 



Home > News

India is heading for a fourth consecutive record wheat harvest

07.04.2020 12:21 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S.Department of Agriculture attache in The New Delhi (India), India is heading for a fourth consecutive record wheat harvest, with marketing year (MY) 2020/21 (April/March) production forecast at 105 million metric tons (MMT). MY 2020/21 rice production is forecast at a near record 117 MMT with average yields. Back-to-back record harvests and government procurements have inflated MY 2019/20 wheat and rice stocks to more than three times desired levels. The Government of India (GOI) is likely to release additional wheat and rice at subsidized prices in CY 2020 and 2021 to reduce stocks to manageable levels. Indian wheat remains uncompetitive in the international market, but exports in MY 2020/21 are forecast higher at 1 MMT on expected higher sales to neighboring countries. Rice exports in MY 2020/21 are forecast to recover to 12 MMT on higher exportable supplies. MY 2020/21 coarse grain consumption is forecast at 45.8 MMT stagnant over last year on weak demand from the poultry sector, which

has been hit by fake news that poultry products can transmit Covid-19.


MY 2020/21 Outlook

India is heading for its fourth consecutive record wheat harvest in the upcoming season as a result of favorable weather conditions in major wheat growing areas. Sufficient soil moisture at the time of planting (October-December), low temperatures, and well-distributed rainfall during the growth stage (DecemberFebruary) supported higher planting and productivity prospects. However, excessive rains and a hailstorm in the mid-March caused crop lodging in some areas. Assuming normal weather conditions through harvest (April/May), Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2020/21 (April/March) wheat production at a record 105 million metric tons (MMT) from 31.1 million hectares (MHa), compared to last years record harvest of 103.6 MMT, largely on higher planting.

Excellent late 2019 monsoon rains and improved availability of irrigation water provided ideal planting conditions prompting farmers to increase the area planted to wheat. The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfares (MoAFW) second advance estimate released on February 18, 2020, estimated the area planted to wheat at 31.1 MHa, nearly six percent higher than last year, largely in the less irrigation-intensive states of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. The GOIs steady increase in the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat, coupled with expanding MSP procurement operations in most states, have encouraged farmers to continue to planting wheat in the rabi (winter planted) season.

Timely planting and the onset of winter in the second week of December (lower temperatures) supported healthy establishment of wheat seedlings. Well-distributed rains and extended low temperature conditions during December through February during critical growth stages (vegetative growth, tillering, flowering, panicle initiation, milking, and seed-setting stages) raised the prospects for higher yield for the upcoming harvest, compared to last years record yields. There have been no major incidence of pests or disease in the major wheat growing areas, except for locust attacks in the state of Rajasthan. However, untimely rains and a hailstorm in mid-March in the norths major wheat producing states reportedly caused crop lodging in several areas, which is likely to impact the overall yield for the upcoming harvest. MoAFWs preliminary estimate (2nd Advance Estimate of Feb 18, 2020), released well before the March rains, forecasts 2020 wheat production at a record 106.2 MMT. Most trade sources have revised their earlier expectation for the upcoming harvest down from 108–110 MMT to 102–105 MMT.

Assuming normal weather conditions from now through harvest (April/May), Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2020/21 wheat production at 105 MMT, based on an expected slightly lower yield of 3.4 MT/Ha, compared to last years record 3.5MT/Ha. The ongoing relatively extended cold temperature conditions in March may delay the harvest by 1–2 weeks. However, any sudden increase in temperature in April (grain maturity stage) and/or heavy rains/hailstorms during harvest (April/May) could adversely affect yield prospects and lower production from the forecast level.

Farmers prefer growing wheat to other crops in irrigated areas in the wheat growing states because of the «guaranteed» returns on relatively stable market prices and yields, compared to other competing rabi (winter planted) crops (corn, pulses, oilseeds and other coarse grains). Due to the GOIs ongoing MSP procurement program for wheat and rice, wheat prices during the harvest season are expected to remain stable compared to other crops. While weather conditions like temperatures and rainfall during the crop season (November-April) influence yield prospects, wheat productivity is relatively stable under irrigated conditions vis-à-vis other competing crops.

Depending on the availability of irrigation resources and frequency of irrigation, soil conditions, and the adoption of technology, wheat yields show variations across major growing states. For example, wheat yields in largely irrigated northern India (Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh) are about 4.5 to 5.0 MT, per hectare, while yields in western and central states (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and central/eastern Uttar Pradesh) are relatively lower at 1.5 to 3.0 MT, per hectare. The perennial river system from the Himalayas replenishes the surface (canal) and ground (tube wells) systems in northern India, ensuring farmers ability to irrigate 5–7 times during the crop season. In comparison, western and central states largely depend on the residual water after the monsoon, ground, and some surface waters (lakes/ponds), so farmers can only manage about 2–4 irrigations.

Indian wheat is characterized as soft to medium hard, medium protein, white bread wheat, and is more or less comparable to U.S. hard white wheat. Wheat from the central and western regions is grown under relatively drier conditions (lower irrigation resources) and has relatively higher protein and gluten in comparison to wheat from northern India

Agro Perspectiva

< Finance ministry hopes to receive up to $5 bln from IMF to national budget All news for
The Russian Government decided to impose a quota limiting exports of certain grains in the amount of 7MMT >

12:50 FAO Food Price Index falls to 17-month low
12:20 FAO Director-General appeals to donors to scale up response and ease plight of farmers and fishers in Yemen
11:25 Väderstad continues to invest in the manufacture of genuine parts
12:15 Ukraine ready to discuss expansion of range of food export to Japan Economy minister
11:11 MHP SE. Unaudited Financial Results for the First Quarter ended 31 March 2020
15:00 Brazil. Sugar production is estimated at 39,5 MT in 2020/2021
20:20 Govt backs separation of ecology ministry from Energy and Environmental Protection Ministry
10:22 EBRD provides EUR3 million loan to Ukrainian cereal producer
18:25 Forecast for Ukraine's GDP fall by 4.8% in 2020 maintained Economy minister
18:14 New Zealand. Apple production expected to reach a record level of 593,000 metric tons
17:40 Ukrzaliznytsia sees UAH 7 bln of loss in Q1 2020
17:38 EBRD provides 60 million USD for Fozzy Group expansion
09:50 Ukraine's GDP 1.5% down in Q1, 2020 statistics
15:50 Global rice area is forecast to rise in 2020/2021
10:53 Record Corn, Wheat, and Rice Crops Build Stocks in 2020/21 - USDA
09:10 Ukraine GDP will contract by 4.5 per cent in 2020
10:30 Kazakhstan. Wheat production is expected to recover in MY 2020/21 to 13.5 MMT
16:50 Bunge reported first quarter 2020 results: Q1 GAAP EPS of $(1.46) vs. $0.26 in the prior year
15:40 Global food commodity prices drop further in April
20:10 AGCO. Net sales dropped by 3.4% in the first quarter
18:18 Export Forecasts Lowered for Beef & Chicken in 2020
17:35 Deficit of national budget totals UAH 23.5 bln in Jan-April Finance ministry
17:10 EU sugar production in MY 2020/2021 is forecast to increase to 17.7 million MT
16:30 AGCO Appoints Wolfgang Kirsch to its Board of Directors
10:30 CNH Industrial announces a progressive resumption of manufacturing operations
17:25 COVID-19: Using economic stimulus to reduce the long-term hunger impact
15:45 Cabinet approves criteria allowing food markets to resume their operation
15:25 Deficit of Ukraine's consolidated balance of payment totals $1.8 bln in March
14:05 BASF Groups sales in the first quarter of 2020 increased to 16.8 billion
11:35 Kazakhstan: First and Second Stage 2020 Meat TRQs for Kazakhstan
10:05 BASF Group withdraws outlook for 2020 business year
18:50 Netherlands: Impact of COVID 19 on the Dutch Potato Industry
21:45 Ukraine's economy ministry revises downwards grain forecast for 2020 to 60 mln tonnes due to lack of moisture, pandemic
21:15 Economy ministry plans to restrict export of Ukrainian corn to 29.3 mln tonnes, UGA opposes this decision
09:33 EBRD launches Vital Infrastructure Support Programme
09:31 EBRD targets coronavirus financing of EUR21 billion through 2021
18:20 Assessing El Niños impact on fisheries and aquaculture around the world
17:25 FAO urges at G20 meeting protection of food supply chains amid COVID-19 threat
17:20 Australia. Wheat production is forecast at 23 MMT in MY 2020/21
17:15 Global Report on Food Crises reveals scope of food crises as COVID-19 poses new risks to vulnerable countries
13:55 Some 60% of Ukrainians not support land sale law, 46% against cooperation with IMF social survey
13:05 IMF to help Ukraine, several issues left to approve EFF IMF official
17:10 Romania Suspends Grain and Oilseed Exports to Non-EU Markets
18:35 Rada updates 2020 national budget due to COVID-19 spread, deficit raised from 2.1% to 7.5% of GDP
14:15 Chicken Meat. The forecast for global chicken meat production is revised 2 percent lower to 100.5 million tons
17:00 COVID-19 Upends Global Protein Markets
10:35 Record Global Supplies for Wheat and Rice
12:21 The Russian Government decided to impose a quota limiting exports of certain grains in the amount of 7MMT
12:21 India is heading for a fourth consecutive record wheat harvest
21:15 Finance ministry hopes to receive up to $5 bln from IMF to national budget

Also available: 

Agrarian Week in digital


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2020 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +38 (044) 486-9171, 486-8119
fax: +38 (044) 486-8830, 494-4889
e-mail: info@agroperspectiva.com