Prospects for U.S. dairy exporters have improved markedly

24.12.2019 11:40 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Dairy: World Markets and Trade (December 2019), Prospects for U.S. dairy exporters have improved markedly as 2020 exports of skimmed milk powder (SMP) are expected to grow by 5 percent to reach 718,000 tons. Further, the fiscal year trade forecast is raised by $300 million to $5.8 billion largely as a result of higher export volumes and prices for skimmed milk products such as SMP and whey. So far this year, although the volume shipped has lagged last year’s pace, the value of U.S. exports of SMP are up 12 percent year-over-year (YOY) through September 2019 and accounted for about 25 percent of the total value of U.S. dairy exports.

A key factor for higher values has been the persistent rise in the price of SMP both in the United States and international markets since early 2018. From January 2018 to Oct 2019 the price of U. S. SMP has increased by about two thirds averaging around 2 percent growth per month to reach over $2,500 per ton FOB West in November. EU prices have also moved up despite the sell-off of some of some 380,000 tons of surplus SMP intervention stocks held by the European Union (EU) during the latter half of 2018 and early 2019. Given that this SMP was sold at below feed prices, it is likely most of this product was used for animal feed. Some, however, appears to have entered export channels, although any price depressing impact seems to have been temporary. Several factors appear to have supported the rise in SMP prices. First, there has been an upswing in global import demand for SMP as YOY imports through September are up from 15 to 30 percent for key markets as China, Indonesia, and Philippines. Second, milk output in 2019 among the major exporters was less than anticipated and likely to be only slightly ahead of last year. Finally, SMP stocks are low in both in the EU and the United States. For 2020, most of the additional milk production among major exporters is forecast to grow in the EU and the United States; however, the U.S. is the only exporter expected to have substantial additional supplies of SMP for the international market.

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