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China Rapeseed Output May Miss U.S. Estimate by 15%, Group Says
23.06.2010 13:42 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
Rapeseed output in China, the world’s largest consumer, may be as much as 15 percent smaller than estimated, adding pressure on global stockpiles and helping support soybean oil prices, the Linn Group said.
«China’s crop is considered more at peril» than other producers, Jerrod Kitt, an analyst at the Chicago-based commodity researcher and brokerage, said in a report e-mailed today. The country’s output may be 1.5 million metric tons to 2 million tons smaller than the 13 million tons forecast by the U. S. Department of Agriculture on June 10, he said.
Reduced output in China may help push rapeseed stockpiles below the 2007–2008 level, as Canada, the largest exporter, was forecast to lose 2 million tons of production in the 2010–2011 season on persistent wet weather, Kitt said. Canada accounts for 60 percent of global shipments of rapeseed.
The USDA forecast on June 10 that rapeseed output in Canada would rise to 12 million tons in the year beginning August, from 11.825 million tons this year.
«The obvious beneficiary to a tight rapeseed situation is soybean oil,» Kitt said. «As rapeseed goes into what appears to be a potential rationing situation, some of the more discretionary industrial consumption could be priced out of the market and move over to bean oil.»
Rapeseed futures have gained 16 percent this year on the NYSE Liffe in Paris as demand from importers including China and Japan exceeds supply. Global imports may rise 4.7 percent to 10.9 million tons, while exports were estimated to drop 1.9 percent to 10.7 million tons, according to the USDA’s forecast on June 10.
Soybean oil traded in Chicago has gained 5.9 percent from June 10 through yesterday as excessive rains delay fieldwork in Canada, narrowing the commodity’s loss to 4.6 percent this year. Soybean oil and soybean futures have dropped this year as global supplies expanded.
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