Agro Perspectiva

Rice. The 2022/23 global harvest is still envisaged to remain at an overall average level of 512.6 million tonnes

15.11.2022 20:11 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Although inclement weather and sharp hikes in input costs are predicted to lower world rice output for the first time in three years, the 2022/23 global harvest is still envisaged to remain at an overall average level of 512.6 million tonnes (milled basis). Asia is seen largely underpinning this result, thanks to a resilient level of plantings, which should help to counteract some of the yield declines anticipated to stem chiefly from poorly distributed rains, especially in Southern Asia.

Output is also forecast to recover in Africa, with positive results likewise registered in Oceania. Production expectations are negative elsewhere, in particular for the United States of America and Europe, where rice harvests are set to fall to multi-decade lows.

Global use of rice for food is predicted to remain robust in 2022/23, expanding in tandem with population growth to reach 426.5 million tonnes. Conversely, after reaching extraordinary highs in 2021/22, animal feed and industrial uses of rice may contract. This could result in total world utilization of rice in 2022/23 declining by 0.7 percent year-on-year, to 518.3 million tonnes.

The outlook for international trade in rice in 2023 (January- December) is dampened by prospects of tighter exportable availabilities, as well as uncertainties surrounding the impact of the slowdown in economic growth and the strength of the United States dollar on import demand. This is so, even if efforts to compensate for domestic production shortfalls and mitigate the impact of food price inflation through imports could keep volumes traded across the globe at a comparatively abundant level of 52.9 million tonnes.

Global rice stocks at the close of 2022/23 marketing seasons are forecast at 193.4 million tonnes, 1.8 percent below their record opening levels, but still the third largest volume on record. This relative abundance mainly reflects expectations of stock accumulations in China and India, which could overshadow a forecast 8.1-percent drawdown in aggregate inventories held by all other countries.

International rice prices have moved up for the large part of 2022, reversing most of the declines registered in 2021, due to large exportable availabilities. Supply constraints in the Japonica and basmati markets contributed to the price increases, as did strong demand for Indica varieties and export policy changes

in India. Reflective of these trends, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 112.0 points in October 2022, up 2.5 percent from May and 12.1 percent above its year-earlier level.