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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

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EBRD lowers Ukraine 2025 growth forecast to 2.5 per cent

26.09.2025 10:49 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Projection for 2026 unchanged at 5.0 per cent, providing Russia’s war on Ukraine ends

EBRD revises Ukraine 2025 growth forecast down to 2.5 per cent from 3.3 per cent

Report says Ukraine has largely maintained macroeconomic stability despite war

EBRD forecast for 2026 real GDP growth unchanged at 5.0 per cent if fighting ends

Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5 per cent in 2025, amid high uncertainty related to Russia’s war on the country, says the latest edition of a flagship economic report by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The previous report, in May, had forecast 3.3 per cent growth in 2025.

However, the EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects (REP), published today, keeps its real GDP growth forecast for Ukraine in 2026 unchanged at 5.0 per cent, assuming a ceasefire and benefits from post-war reconstruction.

«Ukraine’s economic outlook is highly uncertain, depending on the war’s course, energy security and continued international support,» the REP says. «The government remains committed to macroeconomic discipline and structural reforms, aiming to mobilise public revenue, increase investment, improve governance of state-owned enterprises and strengthen resilience of the financial sector.»

Real GDP grew by 0.9 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, driven by consumption and critical infrastructure investment, the report says, but adds that labour shortages, damage to energy infrastructure and weak agricultural exports continue to constrain growth.

The unemployment rate has dropped to a wartime low of 12 per cent, but recruitment remains difficult due to mobilisation and emigration.

Ukraine’s current account deficit widened by almost 50 per cent in January-July, reflecting high military and energy imports and weak exports. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 22 per cent of GDP in 2025, with about US$ 40 billion (ˆ34 billion) in external financing — much of it sourced from the European Union, G7 (using income from frozen Russian assets) and the International Monetary Fund.

Inflation remains high, driven by food prices, utilities and rising real wages, but is gradually easing, declining from 15.9 per cent in May to 13.2 per cent in August 2025.

The central bank has kept its policy rate at 15.5 per cent since March 2025 in an attempt to moderate inflation, while foreign reserves reached US$ 46 billion in August 2025 — covering 5½ months of imports and supporting exchange rate stability.

The EBRD, Ukraine’s largest institutional investor, has significantly increased its support in response to the war. The Bank has made nearly ˆ8.4 billion available to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 — including ˆ3 billion to the energy sector — and supported the real economy through its work on energy security, vital infrastructure, food security, trade and the private sector.

Across the regions where the EBRD works, the Bank sees economic growth standing at 3.1 per cent in 2025 before picking up to 3.3 per cent in 2026.

Agro Perspectiva

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26.09.2025

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