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European Union Wheat Imports Decline on Larger Supplies
12.08.2025 21:21 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade (August 2025), European Union (EU) wheat imports are forecast drastically lower in marketing year 2025/26 (July — June) due to a recovery in domestic supplies from larger production and the reinstatement of import quotas for Ukraine. In 2022/23, the EU imported a historic volume of wheat, more than double the typical quantities. For the next 2 years, the EU continued to import unprecedented quantities, receiving 12.7 million tons in 2023/24 and an estimated 10.7 million tons in 2024/25. Ukraine alone accounted for about half of these substantial imports. The European Parliament temporarily removed tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) on Ukrainian wheat in a policy known as Autonomous Trade Measures in 2022, providing a vital market amidst the ongoing conflict. The measures expired in June 2025, and the EU has reinstated the EU - Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreement and the previous quotas. The change in trade policy coincides with a significant increase in EU production. In 2024/25, the EU experienced the lowest wheat harvest in over a decade, supporting the need for strong imports. However, in 2025/26, EU wheat production is forecast up 13 percent on increased area and yield. This will reduce the need for wheat imports overall, and particularly from Ukraine. Prior to the war, the EU was a negligible market for Ukraine, as both are significant producers and exporters. With the removal of TRQs, the EU provided a temporary alternative market for Ukrainian exports; but with improved maritime access, Ukraine is shifting more exports back to its traditional markets in North Africa, Southeast Asia and South Asia. 3 Despite the lower expected shipments to the EU, Ukraine is still forecast to maintain strong exports at 15.5 million tons in 2025/26.
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