Agro Perspectiva

Production outlook for 2025 wheat crop remains favorable - FAO

03.05.2025 07:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —

Global prospects for wheat production remain mostly unchanged from the previous month, with only minor adjustments made due to weather-related developments. FAO’s latest forecast for 2025 wheat production stands at 795 million tonnes, on par with the previous year’s output.

In Europe, the wheat production forecast for the European Union has been revised slightly higher this month, as improved weather conditions in southern countries bolstered overall yield expectations, reinforcing the outlook of a strong production rebound in 2025 following the low of 2024. However, developing dryness in northern areas, marked by rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual temperatures, poses a slight downside risk. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, a higher-than-expected wheat area has edged the production forecast upward and closer to the five-year average, but as in some other northern European Union countries, unusually warm temperatures in April have raised some concerns for yield potentials. The forecast for the Russian Federation remains unchanged, with adverse weather and a reduced area expected to result in a lower year-on-year output. In Ukraine, April rainfall helped improve crop conditions in parts after earlier dryness, but the wheat outlook still points to a below-average output largely reflecting the impact of the conflict. In Northern America, Canada’s main spring season wheat planting is underway, with production prospects still pointing to an output on par with last year’s level. In the United States of America, drought concerns persist, likely keeping total wheat production slightly below 2024 levels. In Asia, hot and dry weather conditions in India prompted a trimming to the national production forecast. However, the widespread use of irrigation has limited the impact, and a record wheat harvest is still predicted in 2025. Pakistan’s production forecast is raised slightly this month, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated area; the wheat output is forecast to slightly exceed the five-year average. In the Near East, higher precipitation volumes in April were insufficient to offset earlier rainfall deficits and warmer-than-usual temperatures, consequently wheat production expectations in Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Türkiye remain below average. In Northern Africa, the outlook is mixed: Morocco faces a below-average harvest, Algeria is forecast to harvest a near-average wheat crop, and Egypt and Tunisia (where irrigation is extensively used) are expected to see average to above-average outputs. In the southern hemisphere, where wheat plantings are underway, Argentina’s production prospects have been bolstered by predictions of better-than-expected rainfall, underpinning a small upward revision to the production forecast, which remains above the five-year average. In Australia, wheat production is forecast to fall year-on-year but remain above 30 million tonnes.

Harvesting of the 2025 coarse grain crops is beginning in southern hemisphere countries. In Brazil, good price prospects have underpinned an estimated increase in the area, while overall conducive weather conditions are likely to result in a small upturn in yields. Overall, total maize production in 2025 is pegged above last year’s outturn and the five-year average. The maize production forecast for Argentina remains unchanged this month, and below the five-year average, mostly owing to a cutback in the sown area largely on the back of fears of maize stunt disease, spread by leafhopper insects. In South Africa, total maize production is revised slightly higher in May, reflecting continued beneficial weather since the turn of the year, and the 2025 harvest is forecast to recover after the dry-weather-reduced output in 2024. Planting of coarse grains crops is underway in the northern hemisphere countries, and early expectations in the United States of America, the world’s leading producer, point to a 5 percent increase in plantings, supporting expectations of a sizeable production increase in 2025.

Source: FAO