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World coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast 6.9 million bags higher
19.12.2024 09:05 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
According to the report of the USDA Coffee: World Markets and Trade (December 2024), world coffee production for 2024/25 is forecast 6.9 million bags higher than the previous year to 174.9 million due primarily to rebounding output in Vietnam and Indonesia. World exports are forecast modestly higher as gains in Vietnam and Indonesia more than offset reduced shipments from Brazil. Global consumption is expected to rise 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and China. Ending stocks are expected to drop 1.5 million bags to 20.9 million. Brazil combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast at 66.4 million bags, up just 100,000 bags from the previous year. Arabica output is forecast 500,000 bags higher to 45.4 million while the Robusta harvest is expected to slip 400,000 bags to 21.0 million. Drought and high temperatures during the fruit development and filling period caused Arabica and Robusta yields to fall below initial projections. With nearly flat output, coffee bean exports are forecast to drop 2.6 million bags to 40.5 million due primarily to last year’s inventory drawdown, which lowered total supplies. Vietnam production is forecast to recover 2.6 million bags to 30.1 million but remain below the 2021/22 record crop. The beginning of the rainy season got off to a dry start and was followed by below-average precipitation and temperatures in many of the major growing areas. Whereas similar conditions lowered yields and output the previous 2 harvests, growers this year responded to higher coffee prices by picking as much as possible rather than omitting smaller, less profitable cherries. Bean exports are forecast to rebound 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million on higher available supplies.
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