Agro Perspectiva

Polish chicken meat production will reach 2.2 MMT in 2020

02.04.2020 15:50 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U. S. Department of Agriculture attache in The Warsaw (Poland), post forecasts that 2020 chicken meat production will grow by 1.5 percent over 2019. Despite more moderate growth, Poland will remain the European Union’s (EU) largest poultry meat producer. Although growing domestic consumption and international demand will drive Polish poultry meat production in 2020, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in late December 2019 will moderate that growth. Until March 12, 2020, there were 30 confirmed HPAI outbreaks in domestic flocks. Post estimates 2020 exports of chicken meat will decline by seven percent from 2019, mainly due to lower exports outside of the EU. In 2019, over 70 percent of exported chicken meat was shipped to other EU markets.

Production

Post estimates that in 2020, Polish chicken meat production will reach 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), a 1.5 percent increase over 2019. This production increase stems from growing domestic demand, as poultry is perceived as more healthful and less expensive than red meat. Despite this increase, Post estimates that 2020 chicken meat production growth will decline from 2019 due to the HPAI outbreak in December 2019. The average farm-gate price for broilers in January 2020 was PLN 3.77 ($1.00), a three-percent increase over January 2019. Chicken broilers account for 85 percent of total poultry meat production, while turkey accounts for 14 percent. Both are primarily processed by the domestic meat processing industry. Duck and goose meat are produced on a smaller scale and are exported mainly to Germany and other countries in Western Europe. Post estimates that 2019, broiler production grew by four percent over 2018. Poultry meat production largely depends on local grain (mainly corn) and 2.0 MMT of imported soybean meal, mainly from South America or the United States.

Consumption

Post estimates that 2019 poultry meat consumption reached 27.5 kilograms per capita, almost two percent over 2018. Poultry meat remains the cheapest animal protein on the Polish market, which drives demand. In the first eight months of 2019, poultry meat prices increased by almost eight percent over the same period in 2018. Pork and beef prices also increased during the same period by 13 and 0.7 percent, respectively. Although Polish consumers continue to prefer pork, with annual per capita consumption at 41 kilograms, poultry meat is perceived as a more healthful and less expensive. The Polish meat processing industry also produces poultry sausages and pâté to imitate pork products. Post estimates that 2020 poultry consumption will continue to grow because of higher production, lower exports due to HPAI, and growing retail prices for pork. Poultry meat constitutes 36 percent of meat consumed in Poland, compared to 51 percent for pork and only five percent for beef. Post estimates that birds from back-yard flocks account for two percent of total consumption.