World flour exports reach record for third year
07.09.2010 10:33 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
For the third straight crop year, world trade in wheat flour established a new record in 200910, according to revised data just issued by the International Grains Council (IGC) in its August Grain Market Report. At the same time the council placed world flour trade in the year just ended at a new peak, it forecast a nearly 8% decrease in the 201011 season just under way.
According to the IGC, global flour exports in 200910 aggregated 13,150,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent (210 million cwts in terms of wheat flour), a new peak for the third year in a row. The revised estimate for 200910 was up 819,000 tonnes, or 7%, from the prior export peak of 12,331,000 in 200809 and was 11% more than the first recent peak of 11,849,000 in 200708.
It was only in 199596 that world flour exports first exceeded 10 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, reaching 10,136,000. The record-setting pace of flour exporting in the past decade was underscored by the way flour exports decreased from the peak in the mid-1990s to reach a recent low of 8,824,000 tonnes at the start of the new century in 200001. From that nadir, exports in 200910 showed an increase of 49%.
In its first forecast of global flour trade prospects for 201011, the IGC pointed to a total of 12,160,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent. That would be down nearly 1 million tonnes from the record of 13,150,000 estimated for 200910, and would also be exceeded by 12,331,000 in 200809. Except for those two years, the prospective volume in 201011 was the largest.
A year ago, the council forecast 200910 world flour exports at 12.4 million tonnes, which turned out to be a minimal 700,000 tonnes on the low side.
Not included in the IGC export flour data are shipments of durum semolina. Durum semolina exports in 201011 are forecast at 200,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, unchanged from 200910 and compared with 203,000 in 200809 and 194,000 in 200708.
The IGC attributed the prospect for a decrease in global flour trade in 201011 to expanded milling capacity in several importing countries. Indeed, it pointed to reduced takings by all of the leading flour importing countries in 201011 as compared with the preceding season.
The sharpest import demand decrease was forecast for Afghanistan, the country that has been the leading flour destination for several years running. It projected Afghanistan imports in 201011 at 1.4 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, against record takings of 1,750,000 tonnes in the previous season and 1,425,000 in 200809. Uzbekistan was forecast to import 1.2 million tonnes in 201011, down 300,000 from, its record takings in 200910. Iraq, which accounted for imports of 1,250,000 tonnes in 200910, was forecast to take 1.1 million in the new season. Indonesia, a country that had recently built sufficient milling capacity to supply its needs, emerged as a ranking importer in 200910, taking 1 million tonnes in wheat equivalent of flour imports. That countrys imports were projected to dip to 800,000 in 201011. The latter would be in line with its imports in the preceding several years.
Partially offsetting these expected flour import decreases by leading importers were gains in several countries and regions. North African imports were forecast at 620,000 tonnes, up 100,000 from the previous season, largely due to an expected rise in Libya imports. Tajikistan was forecast at 650,000, also up 100,000.
When it comes to exporters, Kazakhstan once again held the dominant position in world flour exporting. Its exports in 200910 soared to a new record of 3.5 million tonnes of wheat equivalent (equal to 56 million cwts of flour), compared with 2,733,000 in 200809 and 2,054,000 in 200708. Kazakhstan accounted for 27% of global flour exports in the year just ended. Not so incidentally, that share of global flour trade was less than half of the 56% share the European Union held in 199697 when its exports peak at 6,249,000 tonnes. From that high, E.U. exports fell to a low of 1,227,000 tonnes in 200708. A small rebound to 1.4 million was forecast for 201011.
The IGC forecast that Kazakhstan will continue as the leading global flour exporter in 201011, shipping 3.2 million tonnes in wheat equivalent. This countrys exports primarily went to Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.
Holding to a second place was Turkey, which exported 2,602,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent in 200910, up 20% from 2,161,000 in 200809. It was forecast to ship 2.3 million tonnes in 201011. According to the IGC, competitive pricing by Turkey on flour exports meant that it opened new markets in Asia.
The council attributed the decrease in E.U. exports in 200910 to reduced sales to Cuba, Indonesia and Libya.
On the other hand, U.S. exports in 200910 reached 580,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent (more than 9 million cwts), up 49% from 388,000 in 200809 and the largest U.S. exports since 667,000 in 200203. U.S. exports last exceeded 1 million tonnes in 199900 with an outgo of 1,399,000. The council attributed the rise in U.S. exports to «strong sales to Mexico and South Africa.»
The most dramatic change among flour exporters was the council forecast that shipments from Russia will fall to a minimal 10,000 tonnes in 201011 as a result of the government-imposed export ban in the wake of the drought-curtailed wheat crop. Russia shipped 400,000 tonnes of flour in wheat equivalent in 200910, which was down from 665,000 in 200809.
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