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U.S. 2010-11 total rice supply forecast decreased
19.08.2010 10:32 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) —
There were several supply side revisions this month to the U.S. 201011 balance sheet, according to the most recent Rice Outlook report from the U. S. Department of Agricultures Economic Research Service, USA Rice Federation said on Aug. 16.
First, the crop forecast decreased 4.1 million cwt to 245.9 million cwt, still 12% larger than a year earlier and the highest on record. The reduction was based on a lower yield. The first USDA survey-based yield forecast for 201011 indicates an average field yield of 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118 pounds from last months forecast and 46 pounds below a year earlier. Harvested area remains estimated at 3.5 million acres, up nearly 13% from last year and the highest since 19992000.
Carryin decreased 4.5 million cwt to 33.9 million cwt due to revisions to the 200910 supply and use balance sheet. Estimates for both the long-grain and medium-/short-grain carryin were revised downward. Total imports for 201011 are forecast at 20 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last months forecast. These revisions lowered the total U.S. rice supply forecast 3% to 299.8 million cwt, still 11% larger than a year earlier and the highest on record.
Total use of U.S. rice in 201011 is projected at a record 243 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last months forecast and 3% above a year earlier. Total exports of U.S.-grown rice in 201011 are projected at 114 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last months forecast and almost 5% above last year.
Total domestic and residual use of all rice remains projected at a record 129 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 16% reduction in the 201011 ending stocks forecast to 56.8 million cwt, still the highest since 198586. There were no revisions to the 201011 season average price forecasts this month.
Global production in 201011 remains forecast at a record 459.2 million tons (milled basis). Increased projections for Costa Rica, Turkey, and Australia were offset by reductions for the U.S. and Guyana. Global disappearance increased by 4.5 million tonnes to 456.6 million tones, with India and Bangladesh accounting for most of the upward revision. Global ending stocks were increased almost 1% to 97.5 million tonnes, up 2.6 million tonnes from the previous year and the largest since 200203.
Global trade for 2011 is virtually unchanged from last months forecast of 31.3 million tonnes. The 2010 trade forecast increased 1% to 30.1 million tonnes, mostly due to larger imports by Bangladesh and Turkey. While Thailands trading prices are almost unchanged from last month, Vietnams increased 11% due to strong sales. Prices for U.S. long-grain milled rice continue to decline in the face of a record harvest.
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