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Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market

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Global wheat production is estimated at 796 MMT in 2025

13.03.2025 07:39 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2025 indicates a modest increase, with world output projected at 796 million tonnes, a near 1 percent rise year-on-year. This growth is largely driven by expected production gains in the European Union, following a decline in 2024. Estimates suggest an increase in sowings, primarily for soft wheat, with most of the expansion centered in France and Germany. The average wheat yield among European Union countries is also expected to rise year on year; however, developing dry conditions in the east and excessive rainfall in the west, particularly in France, may limit these gains. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the winter wheat area is forecast to rebound after a 2024 reduction caused by overly wet conditions during the autumn planting period, leading to a modest production increase in 2025. In the United States of America, the total wheat area is expected to expand in 2025, driven by an increase in winter sowings and a likely rise in spring wheat acreage, potentially replacing some soybean plantings. Yields are projected to decline moderately year-on-year due to a greater portion of the winter wheat crop facing mild drought conditions compared to 2024. As a result, total wheat production is expected to decrease slightly, reaching 52.5 million tonnes. In Canada, early projections indicate an expansion in wheat plantings, supported by better soil moisture conditions and expectations of strong prices later in the year. Assuming a return to average yields, wheat production is forecast at 35 million tonnes, in line with 2024’s output. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat acreage has declined for a third consecutive year. Combined with low soil moisture levels and thin snow cover, which raises the risk of frost damage, production is forecast to fall by 2 percent year-on-year to 80 million tonnes. Ukraine’s 2025 wheat area remains below average due to the ongoing war, which continues to restrict field access, strain finances, and damage infrastructure, reducing profitability of the sector. Rainfall deficits have further weakened yield prospects, and production is projected to decline moderately year-on-year. In India, wheat plantings have reached a record level in 2025, supported by strong price incentives and government subsidies for agricultural inputs. Yields, however, are forecast to decline slightly, keeping production unchanged year-on-year at 113 million tonnes. In China, mid-February field assessments indicate favourable wheat crop conditions. The crop has recently broken dormancy in northern regions, while in eastern and central parts, it is progressing through the tillering and jointing stages. Production is expected to remain stable year-on-year and above the five-year average at 140 million tonnes. In Pakistan, wheat production is projected to decline to a near-average level in 2025, primarily due to lower yields. This reflects dry conditions that affected rainfed wheat crops and caused irrigation water shortages in northern regions. In Near East Asia, primarily Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Türkiye, rainfall deficits since late 2024 have curbed plantings and lowered yield expectations. Consequently, in both countries, wheat production is projected to fall in 2025, possibly slipping below the five-year average. In North Africa, total cereal production is anticipated to remain below average in 2025, as poor early-season rainfall delayed plantings and lowered yield potential, particularly in rainfed areas.

South of the equator, a surge in domestic maize prices in Brazil during late 2024 encouraged increased maize plantings for the main season, following below-average sowings of the minor maize crop, which is currently being harvested. Assuming normal weather patterns until the harvest period that starts in June, production expectations remain positive for 2025. In Argentina, dry conditions during sowing and early growth stages have limited yield potential. Coupled with reduced plantings due to concerns over stunt disease (spiroplasma) outbreaks, maize production is projected to be below average in 2025. In South Africa, overall maize production is forecast to increase in 2025, supported by expanded white maize acreage — driven by record prices — and a likely rebound in yields following drought-induced declines in 2024.

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< Early wheat production prospects for 2025 point to potential increase

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