India: Record Consumption and Strong Exports Lower Historically High Stock Levels

13.10.2021 13:34 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Cotton: World Markets and Trade (January 2020), India’s 2021/22 consumption is forecast at a record 25.5 million bales and exports are projected at the second-highest level in 8 years at 5.8 million. This level of total use is forecast to lower ending stocks to 12.4 million bales, down nearly 4.0 million compared with the record level 2 years prior. A robust recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and stronger domestic consumption and exports of cotton yarn, fabric, and products are projected to support a significant downfall in stocks.

Stock levels nearly doubled to a record 2 years ago primarily due to the following factors. First, production soared 3.0 million bales while consumption fell over 4.0 million. Second, India’s seed cotton prices fell below the Minimum Support Price (MSP), which drove record state purchases and storage of cotton lint in CY 2020 by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). For more information, see the June 2020 publication titled «India: Record 2020/21 Stocks Despite Higher Consumption» here.

Yet, the CCI’s record stock levels quickly fell with record sales in 2020/21. Mills and exporters were eager buyers, with 2020/21 domestic consumption rising 4.0 million bales and exports at their highest in 7 years at 6.2 million.

India’s projected record consumption in 2021/22 is driven by the expected strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth as well as rising textile exports. The International Monetary Fund’s October Update projected India’s GDP growth at 9.5 percent in 2021 and 8.5 in 2022, which is expected to support domestic consumption of cotton textiles and garments. World GDP growth projections of 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 are expected to support exports of cotton lint, yarn, fabric, garments, and home furnishings.

CCI is not expected to purchase a significant quantity of domestic cotton in 2021/22, due to spot prices exceeding the MSP procurement price (5,762 rupee per 100 kgs of seed cotton). Fewer government purchases and less storage coupled with the second-highest level of total offtake (consumption plus exports) are expected to prevent stocks from ballooning back to historically high levels.

AGRO PERSPECTIVA offers Agro + «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market» weekly analytical bulletin.

Concerning subscription please contact: client@agroperspectiva.com or +380675964652 (WhatsApp, Viber, Telegram).

06.08.2022
	15:38	FAO Food Price Index registered a steep drop in July
03.08.2022
	15:55	BASF enters power agreements for clean energy supply of more than 20 BASF sites across the United States
	13:22	FAO to boost soil nutrient mapping in Central America and sub-Saharan Africa $20 million contribution from U.S.A. will catalyze more efficient use of fertilizers
	12:21	Europe and Central Asia: Promoting green agriculture to transform local agrifood systems
	11:23	Ukraine: Canada contributes USD 40 million to cover 2.4 million tonnes of storage
29.07.2022
	16:55	South Africa Fresh Orange Production and Exports Climb Higher
26.07.2022
	11:28	BASF transforms market towards certified, sustainably sourced coconut oil
23.07.2022
	02:43	Black Sea grain exports deal ‘a beacon of hope’ amid Ukraine war - Guterres
07.07.2022
	12:43	Russia illegally exports 150,000-170,000 tonnes of grain from Ukraine per month - Ukrainian Ambassador to Turkey
28.06.2022
	08:35	Export prices for milling wheat again fell slightly
27.06.2022
	09:50	No concrete agreements on holding talks with participation of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, UN on grain export – MFA
20.06.2022
	20:32	Coca-Cola to cease production and sales in Russia
14.06.2022
	16:27	Afghanistan: FAO and the World Bank step up their response to the worsening food security $195 million emergency project aims to provide critical life-saving and livelihood assistance to smallholder farmers
	13:32	Ukraine calls on other countries to abandon export restrictions - trade representative
13.06.2022
	12:26	India bans wheat exports to ensure sufficient domestic food grain supply
03.06.2022
	10:28	Thailand Sugar Production and Exports Continue to Rebound
02.06.2022
	11:11	Global rapeseed supplies in 2022/23 are projected to a record 100.5 MMT
31.05.2022
	12:51	Global soybean production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 394.7 MMT
24.05.2022
	09:05	Global soybean production in 2022/23 is forecast at a record 394.7 MMT
17.05.2022
	15:00	Ukraine rapeseed production is forecast to rise despite the ongoing hostilities
	10:49	2021/22 Indonesia Palm Oil Exports Slashed
16.05.2022
	15:45	Astarta Completed Spring Planting 2022
15.05.2022
	16:37	2022/23 Grain Consumption Exceeds Production, Stocks Tighten
11.05.2022
	14:31	EBRD to play key role in support of Ukraine, President says
09.05.2022
	11:15	Vegetable oil and maize prices slightly decrease after recent surge, while rice, meat, dairy and sugar prices slightly increase and global trade prospects dim
29.04.2022
	14:03	BASF achieves strong EBIT before special items despite significantly higher energy and raw materials prices
28.04.2022
	17:52	EU takes steps to suspend all duties on imports from Ukraine
	16:27	BASF to wind down activities in Russia and Belarus except for business that supports food production
27.04.2022
	13:54	EBRD enhances trade finance for Ukraine
	09:11	Coca-Cola will provide assistance to Ukraine for up to $15 mln
26.04.2022
	20:35	Indonesia. Despite the expected increase in production, imports of raw sugar are also forecast to increase
	19:43	Australia is expected to produce another big grain crop in MY 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22
21.04.2022
	10:15	The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity
16.04.2022
	16:25	WFP appeals for access to encircled cities in Ukraine
12.04.2022
	11:35	Global cereal trade and utilization in 2021/22 revised down
	10:25	FAO Food Price Index posts significant leap in March
07.04.2022
	08:49	FAO launches new phase of agriculture policy initiative with $11 million grant from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
29.03.2022
	21:32	Astarta Starts Spring Planting
24.03.2022
	21:15	Pakistan. Wheat production in 2022/23 is forecast at 26.4 MMT
14.03.2022
	13:21	CNH Industrial Statement on Ukraine and Russia
10.03.2022
	11:10	Market Signals to Sell Soybean Stocks
	09:05	2021/22 Grain Trade in Flux Amid Russia-Ukraine Conflict
07.03.2022
	12:40	FAO Food Price Index rises to record high in February
03.03.2022
	11:25	The Food Front is open: the food of Ukraine will provide citizens with products under any conditions!
	11:21	Ukrainian CCI ask all international trade associations to cease cooperation with representatives of russian trade associations
23.02.2022
	14:05	Astarta Invests USD14.6m in the Construction of a Modern Sugar Storage Silo
16.02.2022
	13:18	Brazil. The drought in the south of the country has dampened prospects for a record crop
10.02.2022
	17:21	World Pulses Day leverages the power of youth to transform agrifood systems
	17:17	Shrinking South America Soybean Production Constricts Trade and Boosts Prices
	12:10	Astarta Builds its First Silo in the Chernihiv Region