Homepage  Homepage     Search on site  Search on site     To write the letter  To write the letter     Site map  Site map
Agro Perspectiva
We are on: 
   
 


Home > News

World 2020 cereal production forecast reduced further

04.12.2020 14:15 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) FAOs forecast for global cereal production in 2020 has been lowered for the third consecutive month, with downward revisions for all the major cereals. Nonetheless, global cereal production is still expected to reach a record high level of 2 742 million tonnes, 1.3 percent above the previous years outturn.

Forecast at 1 472 million tonnes in 2020, world coarse grains production has been cut by 6.8 million tonnes month on month. The bulk of the revision reflects reduced yield prospects for maize in the United States of America (USA), which, however, is still on course to harvest its third largest crop on record, and in Ukraine. These reductions more than outweigh a lifting of Serbias maize production forecast, which is now seen to reach an all-time high in 2020. The forecast for world wheat production in 2020 has been trimmed marginally since last month to 761.7 million tonnes, putting this years output at a comparable level with the 2019 outturn. The downward revision reflects reduced forecasts for Argentina and Brazil, on account of recent sparse rains that curbed yield expectations, as well as in Kazakhstan, offsetting an increase made to the production estimate in the Russian Federation. As for rice, production prospects have deteriorated in Bangladesh and Viet Nam, in both cases reflecting the adverse impact of weather on secondary crops. However, the foreseen lower output in both countries, alongside other smaller downward revisions, are partly compensated by an upgrade for Pakistan, where preliminary official assessments indicate that another robust area expansion should lead to a record 2020 harvest. As a result, world rice production in 2020 is now predicted to reach an all-time high of 508.4 million tonnes, 1.5 percent above the 2019 reduced level but marginally down from the previous months expectations.

Looking further ahead, planting of the 2021 winter wheat crop in the northern hemisphere is underway, and sowings in several major producing countries are foreseen to increase driven by remunerative prices, although recent dry weather could curb planting expansions and hinder yields. In the USA, sowing operations are progressing at a fast pace, but dry weather conditions, influenced by the prevailing La Niña weather phenomenon, have resulted in moderately poorer crop conditions compared to the previous year. In Europe, robust export demand and rising prices have incentivized an area expansion in the Russian Federation, with sowings officially estimated at 19.2 million hectares, while limited rainfall in Ukraine caused 2021 sowings to fall to a below-average level. Following a reduced acreage in 2019, wheat sowings in the European Union (EU) are expected to recover substantially. In Asia, weather conditions have been generally conducive for the 2021 wheat crop and, supported by profitable prices, acreages in China, India and Pakistan are all foreseen to increase.

World cereal utilization in 2020/21 is forecast at a record 2 744 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from the previous month and 1.9 percent higher than in 2019/20. The forecast for total utilization of coarse grains in 2020/21 is pegged at 1 477 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from the previous season stemming mostly from increased feed use, especially of maize and sorghum in China, as well as other uses, resulting from a rise in the production of maize-based ethanol in Brazil and the USA. At 757.6 million tonnes, global wheat utilization in 2020/21 is expected to exceed the estimated level for 2019/20 by 1.1 percent, largely as a result of a foreseen increase in food use. Global rice utilization in 2020/21 is anticipated to reach 510.3 million tonnes, unchanged from last months forecast and up 1.5 percent from 2019/20.

The forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2021 has been cut by 9.6 million tonnes since the previous month to 866.4 million tonnes, with stocks now seen falling below their opening level by 0.7 percent. At this level, the global cereal stock-to-use ratio would decline from 31.8 percent in 2019/20 to 30.7 percent in 2020/21, a five-year low but still a relatively comfortable level. At 402.5 million tonnes, total coarse grain inventories are seen lower by more than 10 million tonnes than earlier anticipated, largely reflecting a downward revision to maize inventories in the USA. With this months revision, world coarse grain inventories would fall by 2.8 percent below their opening levels. By contrast, the forecast for world wheat inventories has been scaled up by almost 2 million tonnes since November, mainly on expectations of larger stocks in Canada, China and the EU, and is now pegged at 282.9 million tonnes, up 2.3 percent from opening levels. Wheat stock buildups in China account for the bulk of the expected year-on-year expansion in global inventories. World rice stocks at the close of 2020/21 are pegged at 181.0 million tonnes, down 0.4 percent from their opening levels and 1.0 million tonnes below last months expectations. The monthly revision primarily reflects an anticipated decline in reserves in India owing to improved export prospects for the county. Stocks in India are nevertheless still predicted at an all-time record. Indeed, the expected accumulation in India, alongside an even higher than previously anticipated build-up in Thailand, is seen driving an increase in the major exporters aggregate rice reserves.

World trade in cereals in 2020/21 is forecast at 454.6 million tonnes, up 3.2 million tonnes from last month and now 3.4 percent higher than the 2019/20 level. The forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2020/21 (July/June) is up 2.7 million tonnes month-on-month and is now pegged at nearly 223 million tonnes and surpassing the previous seasons record by 5.7 percent. This months upward revision primarily stems from a faster than expected pace in maize sales by the USA, driven by continued strong purchases by China. At 184.5 million tonnes, world wheat trade in 2020/21 (July/June) is forecast to remain near the 2019/20 level, unchanged since last month as greater expected sales from the Russian Federation balance a downward revision to Argentinas exports as a result of lower crop prospects. World trade in rice in 2021 (January-December) is now forecast at 47.6 million tonnes, 6.9 percent above the revised 2020 forecast of 44.5 million tonnes. Upward import revisions are introduced for various Near Eastern and African countries this month, more than compensating for a somewhat less buoyant import outlook for the Philippines.

Agro Perspectiva

< FAO Food Price Index rises sharply All news for
04.12.2020
Cargill, IFPEN and Axens collaborate to advance lactic-to-acrylic-acid technology >

20.04.2021  
11:50 Vietnam. Soybean meal demand for feed use is forecast to increase in MY2021/22 as the swine herd repopulates
16.04.2021  
14:11 NBU raises key policy rate to 7.5%
14.04.2021  
17:10 Brazil Meat Exports Continue to Grow
13.04.2021  
16:25 Coffee is considered a priority crop by the Angolan Government
12.04.2021  
11:20 Brazil Soybean Exports Record Large in March
10:18 Burma Rice Exports Disrupted Amid Coup
08.04.2021  
21:05 Positive cereal crop prospects in 2021
20:35 Global food prices rise for 10th month in a row
04.04.2021  
10:16 A spicy agricultural heritage: theres more to wasabi than meets the eye
02.04.2021  
16:00 Turkey. Cattle numbers to increase 1 percent in 2021 to 18.3 million head - USDA
13:25 Japan To Begin Enforcement of Organic Regulations for Turkey Products
26.03.2021  
13:55 Korea. Overall demand for beef and pork remains strong
24.03.2021  
15:55 Cargill purchases Precision Ag, expanding its Canadian crop inputs business
23.03.2021  
21:28 Ukraine's GDP down by 4% in 2020 statistics
21:15 Green Climate Fund approves $80 million in FAO-led projects in Congo and Jordan
20:31 Ukrainian banks see profit fall by 60% in Jan-Feb - NBU
21.03.2021  
09:49 Business and govt agree to stabilize prices for socially important goods - EBA
16.03.2021  
16:35 Mexicos chicken meat production, consumption, and imports are projected for 2021
10.03.2021  
21:07 India Corn Exports Competitive Regionally
07.03.2021  
23:15 Early estimate points to record 2021 wheat output
22:43 FAO Food Price Index rises for ninth consecutive month in February
04.03.2021  
12:33 BASF achieved its 2020 Palm Commitment
01.03.2021  
11:43 BASF Group: Strong performance in Q4 2020 due to higher volumes and prices
16.02.2021  
11:05 Kernel asks AMCU for permission to buy CascadeAgro, 12 more farms of Khomutynnik
13.02.2021  
18:36 Ukraine: EIB provides 320 million EURO for COVID-19 vaccines and improvements in operational resilience at Boryspil International Airport
11.02.2021  
09:47 Soybean Buyers Turn Attention to Brazils 2021 Harvest
29.01.2021  
11:15 Global orange production for 2020/21 is forecast to rise 3.6 million MT from the previous year to 49.4 million
28.01.2021  
15:20 USDA attache increased its estimate for South Africas 2020/21 MY total corn crop by 14% to 16 million tons
26.01.2021  
17:10 Economy Ministry announces market agreement to limit corn export from Ukraine in 2020/2021 MY to 24 mln tonnes
13:33 China Lowers Applied MFN Tariff Rates and Revises Out of Quota TRQ Rates
21.01.2021  
11:28 Ukraine plans to return to sending IMF borrowing into NBU FX reserves by 2023 Finance minister
09:15 Honey exports from Ukraine increase in monetary terms by 27.2% in 2020
20.01.2021  
21:25 Agricultural production in Ukraine falls by 11.5% in 2020 statistics
21:17 Ukraine increases imports of chocolate by 25.7%, coffee by 15.4% in 2020
13.01.2021  
17:25 China Demand and Global Supply Concerns Drive U.S. Soybean Price Higher
16:30 China Meat Consumption Expected to Rebound in 2021
10:50 Despite Grain Export Restrictions, Russia to Reclaim Top Wheat Export Position
31.12.2020  
16:37 2020 in review: Focus on staff well-being drives FAO forward
15:36 Sustainabilitys influence on chocolate purchase decisions continues to grow, Cargill study finds
13:35 Malaysia. Palm oil (CPO) production forecast - 19.6 million MT
28.12.2020  
15:09 Serbias total area wheat crop is estimated at 600,000 ha
14:10 India. Winter temperatures this coming December through February, along with precipitation will be critical
24.12.2020  
17:15 Make #NotWasting food a personal resolution
16:15 Two cases of HPAI on duck farms in France threatening the foie gras industry
22.12.2020  
21:25 Philip Morris files suit against Ukraine in intl investment arbitration due to AMCU penalty
21:00 FAO moves to scale up response to Fall Armyworm as pest continues to spread
17.12.2020  
17:15 Global Environment Facility approves over $78 million to support FAO-led projects
16:38 Desert Locust upsurge continues to threaten food security in Horn of Africa and Yemen despite intense efforts
11.12.2020  
15:55 India Tariff Cut Boosts Palm Oil Imports
13:31 Global Wheat Prices Supported by Record Global Imports

Also available: 


NewsNews - News - News - News - News - News
BriefWeekly Reports - Free article
SubscriptionTariff - News&Reports
AdvertisingMagazine - Site
ConferencesForum AGRO-2013 - DAIRY WORLD-2008 - FERTILIZERS-2010
Statistics
For our clientsAgroNewsDaily - Ukrainian Grain&Oilseed Market - Fertilizers - Milk Monthly - Milk Weekly
About usAbout project - Contact
2002 -2021 © Agrarika, ltd.
tel.: +380 44 5934543; +380 44 5934540
e-mail: client@agroperspectiva.com