Agro Perspectiva

World coffee production for 2019/20 is forecast 5.3 million bags

20.12.2019 09:30 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) — According to the report of the USDA Coffee: World Markets and Trade (December 2019), world coffee production for 2019/20 is forecast 5.3 million bags (60 kilograms) lower than the previous year to 169.3 million, primarily due to Brazil’s Arabica trees entering the off-year of the biennial production cycle. World exports are expected down 4.7 million bags to 115.4 million primarily due to lower shipments from Brazil and Honduras. With global consumption forecast at a record 166.4 million bags, ending inventories are expected to slip 400,000 bags to 35.0 million. Coffee prices, as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index, dropped to $0.93 per pound in May 2019, the lowest since September 2006, but rebounded 15 percent to $1.07 by November 2019 as supplies tighten.

Brazil’s Arabica output is forecast to drop 8.3 million bags to 39.9 million compared to the previous season since most trees are in the off-year of the biennial production cycle. Good weather conditions generally prevailed in most coffee growing regions during the blossoming and fruit-forming stages. Despite initial concerns related to July frost in southern and southeastern states, yields were not adversely impacted by this weather event. However, coffee quality as well as bean size were lower than average, because trees in many areas had multiple stages of maturity when the coffee cherries were harvested. The bulk of the Arabica harvest started in May and June. The Robusta harvest is forecast to continue expanding and to reach a record 18.1 million bags, up 1.5 million. Abundant rainfall aided fruit development in the major producing state of Espirito Santo, while good crop management practices supported a steady increase in the state of Rondonia. Most of the Robusta harvest started in April and May. However, the combined Arabica and Robusta harvest is forecast down 6.8 million bags to 58.0 million. With reduced supplies, bean exports are expected to drop 5.4 million bags to 32.0 million and ending stocks are forecast to decline 800,000 bags to 1.4 million. Consumption is expected to continue rising to a record 23.5 million bags.

Vietnam’s production is forecast at a record 32.2 million bags, up 1.8 million from the previous year due to continued expansion of area planted as well as favorable weather that boosted yields. Between January and early April 2019, the main coffee regions in the Central Highlands experienced seasonally dry and sunny weather, and trees were irrigated. The rainy season was slightly delayed, but adequate during July Coffee: World Markets and Trade 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Million 60 Kilogram Bags Production Consumption Record World Consumption Forecast on Reduced Output and August to support good flowering and fruit-set. With black pepper prices falling over the last 3 years, farmers are no longer replacing coffee trees with pepper. However, some farmers have begun to plant durian, mango, avocado, and passion fruit trees in their coffee orchards. Bean exports are forecast 800,000 bags higher to 25.5 million, while ending stocks are seen more than doubling to 4.1 million bags as recent prices provide less incentive to sell.