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World cereal markets remain well balanced

05.04.2019 11:55 "Agro Perspectiva" (Kyiv) The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, also released today, contained sharply raised estimates for global cereal production, utilization and stocks in the wake of new data from China for the period 2007–2017.

Incorporating those revisions, FAO’s current world cereal production estimate for 2018 stands at 2 655 million tonnes. The new figure is 46 million tonnes higher than the March estimate, but still represents a 1.8 percent year-on-year decline.

The forecast for global cereal utilization in 2018/19 has been raised to 2 683 million tonnes, with world wheat utilization set to reach an all-time high of 748 million tonnes. World rice utilization is pegged at 511 million tonnes and that of maize at 1 425 million tonnes.

FAO’s new estimate for global cereal stocks for crop years ending in 2019 has been scaled up by almost 11 percent to 849 million tonnes, mostly reflecting larger holdings in China. As those inventories accumulated over time, the annual change in cereal socks is expected to decline by 2.9 percent from their opening levels, lowering the 2018/19 stock-to-use ratio to 30.7 percent from 32.6 percent in the 2017/18 period.

Global rice inventories are forecast to reach an all-time high of 181 million tonnes, reflecting China’s changes but also expectations of a bumper 2018 crop in India and a strong pace of public domestic procurement in the country.

World trade in cereals in 2018/19 is expected to decline by 2.2 percent from the previous season to total 412 million tonnes.

FAO’s forecast for world wheat production in 2019 remains unchanged from last month at 757 million tonnes, up 4.0 percent from the 2018 level due largely to higher expected production in the European Union, the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

Agro Perspectiva

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