AGRO PERSPECTIVE «Fertilizers » January 14 – 21, 2010
In January, reference fertilizers prices are: for urea $265–275/t FOB; for ammonia $262–275/t FOB; for ammonium nitrate $220–230/t FOB in bulk.
Interdepartmental committee’s decision to suspend restrains for ammonium nitrate dated January 13, was published in «Uryadoviy kurier» of January 19, 2010, and come into operation during 3 months after the date of publication. The news immediately froze enthusiasm of agrarians intending to buy Ukrainian ammonium nitrate. It’s not improbable that a part of agricultural manufacturers will stop expecting very cheap Russian ammonium nitrate which could appear even from the beginning of February.
In response to Ukrainian authorities’ measures Russian manufacturers increased prices, but not higher than by a half of margin of duty’s rate as they promised. Uralchem offers ammonium nitrate at $230/t DAF in bags and sells at $220/t DAF. Other manufacturers offer ammonium nitrate at $235–240/t DAF, but they are ready to sell it at lower price. Importers enthusiastically recount prices in Hryvnya (without duty) and actively negotiate with Russian manufacturers.
Import could reach to 80,000 t in February. Despite volumes, it will not be critical for Ukrainian short-supply market. The real problem is that agrarians are on the long side of the market trusting to receive cheaper Russian commodity. Finally they will buy ammonium nitrate at prices not lower than UAH2,250–2,300/t, however, traders will not be able to earn margin and volumes of bought ammonium nitrate will be less because of delayed purchases. Only those who have bought cheap ammonium nitrate last year and manufacturers will dominate the market from February till April.
Rivneazot continues to sell ammonium nitrate at UAH2,300/t in spite of demand decrease. Ostchem tries to keep price even of large consignments at the level of UAH2,250/t in bags/big-bag. At the same time, the plant mainly exports cheap calcined ammonium nitrate (UAH1,700/t in big-bag).Sulphur-modified CAN could appear in the plant in spring.
Cherkassy Azot offers ammonium nitrate at UAH2,240–2,300/t in bags. Ammonium sulfate price increased to UAH1,140/t. UAN is offered at UAH2,000/t in bulk.
Severodonetsk Azot sold ammonium nitrate at UAH2,160/t, but new price - UAH2,220/t in bags — is coming into operation now. Further price increase will be slow. However, plant traders’ interest to the commodity decreased sharply last week.
Ukrainian traders have to increase prices of phosphorous fertilizers because of purchase prices growth. Ammophos is sold at prices not lower than UAH3,900–4,000/t in bags. NPK 16:16:16 price is stable — UAH3,050–3,150/t. However, price increase to UAH3,200/t level and even higher is possible in a few days.
Price increase in January was the hardest for traders. Now they won’t be able to sell commodity with margin higher than UAH40–60/t if they don’t have old stocks. Risk not to sell commodity in this season could be high only in case of products overpricing. Such situation will decrease purchases of ammonium nitrate from manufacturers.
There are some results of 2009. Import of ammonium nitrate outstripped export (349,000 t against 345,000 t). Export volume of urea was almost 2,950,000 t, and import volume was only 15,000 t.
Domestic prices for fertilizers in Ukraine, UAH/t in bags
Commodity
#$
21.01.2010
14.01.2010
December
2009
min
max
min
max
NPK (15:15:15)
3,000
3,100
2,900
3,000
2,950
NPK (16:16:16)
3,100
3,400
3,100
3,400
3,150
NPK (8:24:24)
#
3,500
4,000
3,300
3,500
-
Diammophoska
(10–26–26)
4,000
4,500
4,000
4,200
4,000
Superphosphate 8:32
-
2,900
-
2,900
2,900
Potassium sulfate
8,000
9,000
8,000
9,000
9,000
Potassium chloride
4,500
4,900
4,500
4,900
4,600
Urea
2,560*
2,700
2,400*
2,700
2,500
Monoammonium phosphate
3,900
4,000
3,300
3,500
3,300
Ammonium sulfate in bulk (gray/white)
950/ 1,140
1,100/ 1,300
900/ 1,080
1,000/ 1,300
850/1,080
Ammonium nitrate (importers/ factory prices)
#
2,200/ 2,220
2,300/ 2,301
2,150/ 2,160
2,300/ 2,301
2,100
Potassium nitrate
9,000
9,600
9,000
9,600
9,600
UAN
#
2,000
2,060
2,000
-
1,950
* — in bulk
Prices for export fertilizers (FOB — Yuzhnyy), $/t
Commodity
#$
21.01.2010
14.01.2010
December
2009
min
max
min
max
Urea in bulk
270
275
270
275
260
Ammonium nitrate in bulk
#
240
250
220
230
205
Ammonia in bulk
#
285
295
275
285
265
Prices for import fertilizers (DAF — Ukrainian boarder), $/t
