Ukrainian Grain Market
AGRO PERSPECTIVE «Ukrainian Grain & Oilseed Market » February 1-7, 2008 # 55 (158)
Within this week food grain market sector remained rather tough due to grain holders limited offer/high declared prices.
Though companies have somewhat raised purchase prices, agricultural producers were quite reluctant to sell off their grains reserves. Some traders continued active grains purchasing, — in case if they even don’t receive a share of new «possible» export quota (as State authorities declarations on export quota enlarging since Apr become more often), they will be able to profitably sell purchased grains on domestic market.
Feed wheat followed food wheat tendencies; within this week feed wheat prices have strengthened by UAH10,0–20,0 per MT. Prices were additionally supported by processors
active purchases (as processors often offered purchase prices up against other buyers).
Feed barley market remained unchanged. Those export-orientated companies which had accumulated big grains reserves were unwilling to sell them off due to high purchase prices/storage expenditures.
As of now, barley export prospects remain quite uncertain due to domestic market tense balance. Besides, main barley consumers aren’t eager to make barley purchases as it is possible to buy maize/feed wheat at lower prices.
Feed maize prices have somewhat strengthened. Mixed feeds plants and starch/molasses producers were most actively interested in maize purchases. Traders raised their purchase prices by UAH30,0–40,0 per MT.
EXPORT
Feed barley purchase prices were UAH1,210–1,280 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator, depending on regions/contract conditions). If barley export were free, feed barley US$ purchase prices would range within US$320–330 per MT (FOB)/US$310–320 per MT (CPT port).
Feed wheat prices have reached UAH1,130–1,200 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator).
Feed wheat ports US$ purchase prices were US$290–300 per MT (CPT port).
FOB offer prices fluctuated within US$300–310 per MT (FOB).
4 class food wheat US$ prices (taking into account global market prices current conjuncture) equaled to US$330–340 per MT (CPT port).
Maize
Traders purchased feed maize at UAH1,160–1,230 per MT (EXW-ex-elevator). Feed maize US$ prices were " US$270–280 per MT (CPT port)/US$280–290 (FOB).
Ukraine\Byelorussia and Ukraine\Russia
Within this week most processors faced problem of acceptable prices grains deficit, — that is, though grains offer was quite sufficient, grains sale prices were too high. This week market tendencies were affected, firstly, by some traders active purchases/flour millers grown demand and, secondly, by grain holders being well aware that as soon as grains export is permitted, Ukrainian domestic market grains volume would shorten to make flour producers buy food wheat at high prices.
Flour milling integrated plants wheat shipments were estimated as sufficient only in central/southern regions. However, shipments sufficiency is to be explained only due to purchase prices having much grown in these regions. In other regions, purchase prices haven’t grown as much. Flour millers say agricultural producers have much overrated grains sale prices, — what is to be explained with Government intending to enlarge grains export quota since this year Apr.
Some flour millers admit within this week low-quality grains share was much up in offered lots: many agricultural producers had no warehouses adjusted to grains long-term storage, yet, being stimulated with global/Ukrainian prices growth trends, tried to hoard up their grains reserves as long as possible.
On groats market, producers have raised buckwheat/peas purchase prices; however, these crops offers number remained very low.
Processed Products
Flour millers say within this week wheat flour sale rates were, as expected, somewhat up against last week. Earlier forecasted bakery products/confectionaries producers demand growth appeared mainly in southern, northern, western and, partially, eastern regions, — what is to be explained with producers resources depletion. Flour millers say flour products demand is possible to slightly slacken in near future due to sale prices growth.
In what concerns flour sales up to grades, central/eastern regions flour millers have faced some problems with 1 grade flour sales, — while northern/western regions millers found it more difficult to sell highest grade flour.
Southern/eastern regions flour milling integrated plants sale prices have much boosted: some integrated plants declared highest grade flour sale price as much as UAH2,300 per MT. It is to be admitted, Georgia and Moldova were, as earlier, actively exporting high-quality flour from leading Ukrainian millers.
Flour products sale prices further forming will depend on Ukrainian grains market changes. As of now, those producers which have raised their purchase prices are waiting for market operators reaction: producers say though most clients are scrutinizing current market situation so far, yet, at same time, they find recent prices growth economically justified.
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